Flooding and Hail in Kentucky, May 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
300 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET WEEK.

18Z MODIFIED SOUNDING AT ILN YIELDED ABOUT 600 J/KG OF CAPE WITH A
HIGH OF 75 AND A DEWPOINT OF 65.  COLD FRONT WAS STILL POISED TO OUR
WEST.  COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO TOO MUCH FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT AS MEAN FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SWLY...OR NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT.  STILL THINK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ERUPTED LATE THIS AFTN
IN WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...AND THUS...WILL PLAN ZONES THAT WAY.
THUNDERSTORMS...WITHOUT UPR SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD DIE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

NEXT S/WV OVER TX WILL PIVOT INTO THE TN VLY ON TUESDAY.  THIS
S/WV...ALONG WITH A LOW LVL JET...WILL BRING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN TO
OUR SE CWFA ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A CHANCE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS FRONT WAFFLE
OVER THE SRN CWFA.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT S/WV IS FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE
REGION.  THIS WILL PERTURB A SFC LOW ON WAFFLLING FRONT.  GOOD
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND CONV AT THE LOW LVLS WILL BRING A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AIRMASS SHOULD BE
JUICY...SO HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY.

WE MAY SEE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BEFORE ANOTHER S/WV BRINGS IT BACK NORTH ON
FRIDAY.

KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.

.ILN...NONE.

HICKMAN

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-051230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-052215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATTER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...

A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTH OF THE THIS FRONT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MUGGY AND UNSTABLE.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  HOWEVER...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OHIO RIVER LATTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS TURNING WITH HEIGHT WILL ALSO MAKE ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  KEEP
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

 TIPTON