Flash Flooding and Hail in Kentucky, May 5 to 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1205 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

TORNADO WATCH #240 JUST ISSUED UP TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LMK
FA. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST WARM
FRONT, BASED ON LIFTED INDICIES, IS RUNNING FROM SOUTH OF KBWG
NORTHWESTWARD TO JUST N OF KPAH. SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY, 0-3KM SR
HELICITY VALUES ARE SIGNIFICANT, EASILY EXCEEDING THE 500-700 M2/S2
THRESHOLD FOR TORNADIC FORMATION WITHOUT LOCAL HELICITY ENHANCEMENTS
THROUGH BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. MEMPHIS, PADUCAH, AND NASHVILLE
RADARS ABOUND WITH HP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND TORNADIC SIGNATURES.
LOUISVILLE RADAR SHOWING MESO SIGNATURES UP INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHERN INDIANA, BUT THIS IS WELL INTO THE STABLE AIRMASS
POLEWARD OF THE WARM FRONT.

OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO, THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
NORTHWARD, PER THE 0Z ETA WHICH INITIALIZED WELL THIS EVENING.
THROUGH 2 AM, PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY FROM OHIO TO MONROE
COUNTIES SOUTHWARD WILL BE INTO THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY COALESCES WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES AOA 700. AFTER 3 OR 4 AM,
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WILL BE INTO THE WARM SECTOR,
COMBINED WITH SRH VALUES APPROACHING 500. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT REMAINS REAL, AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS, THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A BOWLING GREEN TO FORT KNOX
TO HUNTINGBURG LINE.

.LMK...NONE.

XXV

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1253 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH AND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT WILL HELP PULL MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE
ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IS
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 600 AM EDT. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND FROM NOAA WEATHER RADIO,
WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET, AND FROM YOUR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR OVERNIGHT. ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED AGAIN FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
832 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0502 PM    BEAVER DAM                KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   OHIO                           REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER. ALSO...MARBLE SIZE
                                          HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
                                          HARTFORD AND ROCKPORT.

0530 PM    CANEYVILLE                KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   GRAYSON                        REPORTED BY NWS
                                          COOPERATIVE OBSERVER.

0538 PM    SADLER                    KY   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   GRAYSON                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0540 PM    6 W LEITCHFIELD           KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   GRAYSON                        HIGHWAY 54 TURNED WHITE
                                          DUE TO COVERING OF HAIL.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0544 PM    2 NE LEITCHFIELD          KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   GRAYSON                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0547 PM    4 S LEITCHFIELD           KY   .50 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   GRAYSON                        MARBLE SIZE HAIL COVERED
                                          THE GROUND IN THE BEAR
                                          CREEK AREA. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0605 PM    PRICEVILLE                KY   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   HART                           LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
                                          SIZE COVERED THE GROUND.
                                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

0630 PM    ALLENDALE                 KY   .25 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   GREEN                          PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT.

0630 PM    MAGNOLIA                  KY   .25 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   LARUE                          PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          FIRE DEPARTMENT.

0643 PM    BENGAL                    KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   TAYLOR                         REPORTED BY FIRE RESCUE.

0651 PM    CAMPBELLSVILLE            KY   .25 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   TAYLOR                         PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT.

0717 PM    LIBERTY                   KY   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   CASEY                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

MRC