Flood in Kentucky, February 17 to 21, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IF AND WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
TODAY...THEN NEXT CHANCE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND LATE WEEK
SYSTEM.

SOLID CLOUD DECK EXTENDED WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ALBEIT IT
WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD...NEVERTHELESS WE WILL SEE A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST BY
AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY STREAMING EASTWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS A RESULT OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW AND ICE COVER...HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ABOUT ONE
CATEGORY FROM MOS.

THE MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM JUST A BIT DIFFERENTLY...IN THAT
THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED WAVE NEAR ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND THUS
DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE ETA IS NOT AS FAR EAST OR NORTH WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND WOULD HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE
UKMET SEEMED TO AGREE WITH THE GFS...AND WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ADVERTISED.  FOR NOW...WELL LEAVE THAT
INTACT. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR FREEZING
EAST HALF TUESDAY NIGHT...SO IF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKES IT THAT FAR
EAST...IT MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN.

THE GFS MAINTAINS ITS AGGRESSIVENESS WITH REGARD TO QPF ON WEDNESDAY
AND CATEGORICAL POPS.  THE ETA WAS A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH MAINLY
CHANCE POPS.  WITH FORECAST AREA PLACED IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MOVING IN...AM INCLINED
TO INCREASE THE POPS TO AT LEAST LIKELY FOR NOW UNTIL WE CAN BETTER
DELINEATE THE AREAL THREAT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT WARMUP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS DEVELOPS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH EJECTS NORTHEAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER.  AT THIS TIME...IF THE SURFACE LOW WOULD DEVELOP 100
MILES FURTHER SOUTH...IT COULD BE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM. APPEARS THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR IN AREAS THAT DIDNT RECEIVE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND. NONETHELESS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN EVENT
FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ON SATURDAY AS
DEFORMATION ZONE AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SDF...NONE.

VLD

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
500 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE ENDING AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY, NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 FROM MID MORNING ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE TODAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
THERE, NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POTENTIAL WILL BE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2
INCHES. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY, SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH. PEDESTRIANS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD
MOVE ALONG SLOWLY AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

WITH THE MERCURY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE, SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE, THE MERCURY WILL RISE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONGER