Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 4, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

TONIGHT-MONDAY: THE MESOETA BRINGS THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z TONIGHT.  SO I
WILL TEND TO GRADUATE MY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SUCH.  ONLY CHANCE
FOR TRW SHOULD BE IN THE FAR SE SECTIONS OF THE STATE.  THE DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REMAINING SECTIONS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT IN A 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.  THE CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE REBOUND ON MONDAY AS HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.

TUES-WED: I AM NOT VERY CONVINCED WITH THE TRW CHANCES ON TUESDAY,
AS THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LACKING A BIT ALONG WITH ANY GOOD LOW
LEVEL FORCING.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE DOES MOVE ACROSS THE CWA, SO I
WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, BUT I WILL
FOLLOW SUIT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP NEAR THE OK PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  A WARM FRONT SETS UP JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED...
MRF SEEMS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, SO WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS THOUGHTS OF USING ECMWF.  A NICE SHORTWAVE WILL RIP ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  WITH MOISTURE PROGGED TO HEAD
BACK THIS WAY WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH.  ON SATURDAY, I WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR TRW GOING AND BRING THE HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY AS A 35 TO 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY JET ADVECTS H8 TEMPS OF AROUND 20C.  THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE RATHER STORMY IF THE MODELS KEEP THE
CURRENT TREND.

FCSTID =    1
ICT   52  81  49  75 /  10   5  10  10
HUT   51  81  49  74 /  10   5  10  10
EWK   51  81  49  74 /  10   5  10  10
EQA   53  81  49  74 /  10   5  10  10
WLD   53  82  50  76 /  10   5  10  10
RSL   50  79  47  72 /   5   5  10  10
GBD   50  80  48  73 /   5   5  10  10
SLN   50  80  48  72 /  10   5  10  10
MPR   51  81  49  74 /  10   5  10  10
CFV   55  82  51  75 /  20   5  10  10
CNU   55  82  50  74 /  20   5  10  10
K88   55  81  50  74 /  20   5  10  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-051030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
EVENING, GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MARION TO WICHITA TO
WELLINGTON.  THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS, WHERE THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 99.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN INDICATES A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF A LINE FROM SALINA
TO NEWTON TO ANTHONY LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

HOWERTON