Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 20, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2003

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON HEAT AND UNDER UPPER SHORT
WAVE. THEN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS FRONT DROPS
ACROSS AREA.

SATELLITE SHOWING DEVELOPING CU AND RADAR ECHOES INCREASING PAST FEW
SCANS.  WILL GO WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF CWA AND MENTION ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE WITH MAIN THREAT AS PAST
FEW DAYS BEING DAMAGING WINDS.  WITH LOSE OF AFTERNOON HEATING...AND
SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
CHANCE FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES.
LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PAST NIGHTS...LOW 70S TO NEAR 75.

FOR THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIFFLUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD GIVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.  HIGHS FROM UPPER 90S FAR NORTH CENTRAL
TO AROUND 102 DEGREES EAST CENTRAL.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE FLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST...STILL WARM H850 MB
TEMPS...WILL LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S FAR NORTHEAST TO MID
90S.

FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS BUILDING RIDGE OVER CWA
AND TREND...ECMWF H850 MB TEMPS WARMER WITH READINGS AROUND 22 TO 24
DEGREES WHILE MRF ABOUT 4 OR 5 DEGREES COOLER.  GIVEN THE PAST
TRENDS...FAVORING LEAVING HIGHS IN THE MID 90S SATURDAY AND MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.  MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANY SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  FEELING IS BOUNDARY WILL STAY NORTH AT THIS
TIME.  STILL WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF IT...THEN WITH PERHAPS A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPS TRENDED BACK ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  LATEST MRF WOULD
HINT OF SOME PRECIP CHANCES FOR WED...DAY 7...BUT ECMWF LEADING INTO
THIS PERIOD NOT AS CONVINCING WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY THUS LEFT DRY.

.TOP...NONE

FRANTZ

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-211000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO POSE A HAZARD.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS RANGING
FROM 103 TO 107 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES DUE TO PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT.

THE FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. FIRE CONTROL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT AND
REQUIRE EXTENDED EFFORT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLTON TO CONCORDIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN POSE A HAZARD.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX READING
AROUND 105.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT AND
STRENUOUS PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. YOUR BODY CAN LOSE UP TO A GALLON OF
WATER PER HOUR THROUGH PERSPIRATION. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER TO AVOID
DEHYDRATION. ALCOHOLIC AND CAFFEINATED BEVERAGES CAN INCREASE THE
RATE OF WATER LOSS IN YOUR BODY...INCREASING THE RISK OF HEAT
EXHAUSTION OR STROKE. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT COLORED AND LOOSE
FITTING CLOTHING. WEAR A HAT TO SHIELD YOURSELF FROM THE SUN AND WEAR
SUNSCREEN.

WOLTERS