Lightning Strike in Iowa, July 9, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
215 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

00Z ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AT THE SURFACE...A
VERY IMPRESSIVE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LAY FROM NEAR
KHSI TO SOUTHERN IOWA...TO NEAR KIND. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN
IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS PRESENT NORTH...ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.  THIS STABLE AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...LIKELY KEEPING IT FROM WASHING OUT OR MOVING
TOO FAR NORTH.  THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE FROM SEVERAL
MODELS...WHICH TAKE THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH LATE
EVENING...LOCAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY. IF INSTABILITY CAN ESTABLISH
ITSELF ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS IS WHERE THE
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL BE
GREATEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST
BOUNDARY WILL BE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY 34 DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS LOCATION IN THE
MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AS FAR AS POPS GO...WILL WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TWO CONSOLIDATING MCS/S TO THE WEST CLOSELY
BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME.  UNLESS THINGS CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PLAN ON GOING CATEGORICAL TODAY AS MORNING
STORMS ARE REPLACED BY WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE COLD FROPA TO MID EVENING. DESPITE DISAGREEING WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TRIPLE POINT AND WEST EAST BOUNDARY...WE FEEL THE
SPEED OF THE UPPER FEATURES IS HANDLED REASONABLY WELL AND THE MAIN
FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS LOGICAL.  WILL KEEP EVENING POPS...ALONG WITH
SEVERE RISK AND HEAVY RAIN.  FLOOD WATCH ISSUED BY DAYSHIFT
YESTERDAY WILL BE KEPT GOING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT
AREAS IN THE SOUTH WHO SAW EXCESSIVE RAIN THIS PAST EVENING.

NICE COOL DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BENIGN WEATHER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

DVN...
IA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
IL...FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
MO...FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

ERVIN

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-101000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
420 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.  A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
IOWA WILL ROLL EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS COMPLEX WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOUND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THERE IS ALSO A
LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS MORNING.  BY THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.  A
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 AND INTERSTATE 80 WILL
INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A TORNADO ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH
SEVERE WEATHER...FLOODING...AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS WARM
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RAINFALL
REPORTS AND FLOODING REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

ERVIN