Flash Flooding and Flooding in Indiana, September 1 to 3, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
210 AM EST MON SEP 1 2003

OBVIOUS CHALLENGE TO THIS FCST IS TIMING/CVRG OF PRECIP THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALONG WITH QPF AS DEEP MOIST ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM GRACE CONTS TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD AND QUASI-STNRY
FNT REMAINS ACRS CNTRL INDIANA. SVR WX ALSO A CONCERN ESP ACRS THE
SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA WITH DECENT SHEAR AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVC AS YESTERDAY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIS TO -4 AND CAPES TO 1200
J/KG THIS AFT AND EVE. EARLY MRNG KIND-88D LOOP WAS SHOWING A SHIELD
OF RN ACRS ALL BUT OUR SRN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES WITH HVY TRWS FM
GREENFIELD TO BLOOMINGTON. SFC ANLYS HAD THE STNRY FNT FM ABOUT
HUF-IND-CVG AT 07Z. MEANWHILE...UA PATTERN HAD THE REMNANTS OF GRACE
LIFTING N ACRS ERN TX...A TROF ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND FAST W FLOW
ACRS THE LWR GT LKS/OH VLY. KIND-88D RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE LAST
24 HOURS WERE AROUND AN INCH WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (AS
HIGH AS 4-5 INCHES LOCALLY) ACRS WCNTRL AND SW PARTS OF THE FA.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE MOST CONSISTANT GFS PREFERED PER THE
PMDHMD DISCUSSION ESP REGARDING THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER S PLACEMENT OF
THE FNT TNGT. AT ANY RATE MODELS CONT TO KEEP STNRY FNT ACRS THE FA
WHILE SLOWLY SAGGING IT S TNGT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FNT DURING
THE EVE. WITH FNT IN PLACE...TROPICAL MOIST PLUME FM GRACE...DECENT
SHEAR INCLUDING LOW LVL JET TO 35 MPH ACRS SRN FA AND SEVERAL UPR
IMPULSES EJECTING NE FM GRACE MOVING ACRS...EXPECT HEAVY RN THREAT
THROUGH TNGT. AREA IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 115 KT 250 MB JET MOVING
ACRS THE GT LKS WL ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO HVY RN POTENTIAL.
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO SUBSIDE ACRS NRN FA TNGT AS FNT...UVM FIELD AND
DEEP MOIST SAG S. BUT WL NOT SPLIT HAIRS AND KEEP FFA ACRS ENTIRE FA
THROUGH TGNT AS PER ONGOING FCST. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLDS AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY WL INCRS SVR POTENTIAL. HVY RN THREAT COULD EVEN CONT
THROUGH TUES ACRS THE S AS DEEP MOIST AND LIFT CONT. BY TUES
NGT...UPR LOW TO PIVOT E ACRS THE GT LKS WL KICK WEAKENING REMNANTS
OF GRACE AND FNT SE OF THE FA.

MOS TEMPS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WL STICK CLOSE AS THEY APPEAR
TO HANDLE THE DEW PTS AS WELL AS CLD CVR FAIRLY WELL.

.IND...FFA FOR ALL OF CNTRL INDIANA THROUGH 7 AM EST TUESDAY.

KOCH

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 AM EST MON SEP 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS OF THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECCESSARY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND (ALL LOWER CASE)

KOCH