Damaging Winds in Indiana, May 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

.SHORT TERM...

THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA.
STRONG STORMS OVER THE UPPER GULF COAST STATES HAS ROBBED MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON A COOL
FRONT LOCATED FROM MISSOURI TO CENTRAL OHIO. THESE STORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST HOUR (18:30Z) AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVED INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MISSOURI TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER KENTUCKY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
1/2 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DROP SOUTH
OF THE CFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WE WILL HOLD ONTO CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MODELS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW TRAVELING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SYSTEM WILL FIRE UP MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING FOR TUESDAY AND
WILL GO DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. WILL BE A TAD COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LMK...NONE

JA/KP

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-070930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
605 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE WARM, MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ILLINOIS THIS IS EVENING WILL ALSO HELP TRIGGER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS ALSO A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. URBAN AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN
BE A THREAT AS WELL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

JMB