Hail in Illinois, May 9, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.  COLD FRONT HAS BASICALLY BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND QUINCY ILLINOIS TO JUST
SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MISSOURI.  CU FIELD SOUTH OF COLD FRONT
INDICATING GOOD INSTABILITY...BUT LACK OF BIG TSRA OVER MO ATTM
PROBABLY A RESULT OF WEAK CAP AS SHOWN BY ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS.  RUC
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT WE ARE UNCAPPED...BUT
WEAK/NON-EXISTENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUR STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SHOULDNT
LAST...AND WE ARE EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT IN THE WARM MOIST AIR ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
HPC HAS US OUTLOOKED IN THEIR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT...AND MODEL
QPFS ARE IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE LEAST WITH THE GFS PRINTING OUT 4+
INCHES OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.  FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOW WITH MOST AREAS HOVERING AROUND THE 1 INCH
IN 1 HOUR MARK.  HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL HIGH WATER PROBLEM.
ADD TO THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME 6000+ J/KG OF CAPE EARLY THIS EVENING...QUICKLY FALLING
OFF TO A LESS SCARY BUT STILL RESPECTABLE LEVEL OF 3500-4000 J/KG
BY MIDNIGHT.  THE RUC IS SHOWING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 M/S OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WHICH IS WELL INTO SUPERCELL RANGE.  WITH THAT IN MIND...AND A
NICE BOUNDARY TO SUCK VORTICITY OFF OF...SPCS MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD.

THE FUN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS
MOVING.  BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE FROPA.  MESOETA SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME 2000 TO 4000
CAPES DEPENDING ON WHERE YOURE STANDING AND BULK SHEAR VECTORS AOA
25 M/S FOR SUPERCELLS.  AGAIN...MODERATE RISK FOR SATURDAY TILL THE
FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE WEATHER FINALLY CALMS DOWN ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN AND HANGS IN INTO NEXT WEEK.

EXTENDED...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGE FINALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS.  THE NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA
STARTS DEEPENING AT 500 MB OVER THE DAKOTAS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AT THAT TIME AND BEGINS DRAWING MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  KEPT CHANCE TSRA IN FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND WENT DRY FOR FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY THEN.  FOLLOWED
ENSEMBLE MOS/HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD.

.STL...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OWENSVILLE MO TO
NASHVILLE IL.

CARNEY

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
210 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

...THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  CITIES IN THE
MODERATE RISK INCLUDE ST LOUIS...COLUMBIA...JEFFERSON CITY...
MEXICO AND CUBA.  SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK...THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK THAT COVERS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE THAT COVERS THE AREA.  THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...THAT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  IN
ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A CUBA MISSOURI
TO SPARTA ILLINOIS LINE.  IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE EXACT SETUP FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND PASS
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ILLINOIS SATURDAY
EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE HIGH
AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

STAY TUNED FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION.

AFTER A REST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN GREATLY APPRECIATED DURING THE PAST
WEEK.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SEVERAL MORE TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LSX (ALL LOWER CASE)

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
848 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 PM    1S VIRDEN                 IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   MACOUPIN                       REPORTED BY FIRE DEPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
851 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 PM    1W ASHLEY                 IL   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   WASHINGTON                     REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
856 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0825 PM    3S PALMYRA                IL   FUNNEL CLOUD
05/09/03   MACOUPIN                       2 FUNNEL CLOUDS OBSERVED
                                          BY SPOTTER.

0830 PM    5W GIRARD                 IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   MACOUPIN                       REPORTED BY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0848 PM    VIRDEN                    IL   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   MACOUPIN                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
858 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0850 PM    FLORIDA                   MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   MONROE                         REPORTED BY SHERIFF.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
903 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0855 PM    FARMERSVILLE              IL   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   MONTGOMERY                     REPORTED BY SPOTTER.