Damaging Wind in Idaho, August 15, 2003

SOUTHEAST IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
310 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2003

UPPER LOW KICKING INLAND ACROSS OR/WA THIS AFTN. TO OUR EAST...5H
INVERTED TROF MOVING INTO EASTERN ID. THIS INVERTED TROF MOVING
WESTWARD INTO DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS ID. THE COMBINATION OF
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT/RECORD VALLEY HEAT AND TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS SE
ID...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS E ZONES AND THEN
SPREAD WEST LATER THIS EVE. WITH PWS WELL OVER AN INCH...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS A GOOD BET. RADAR ALREADY SHOWING A N-S BAND OF
TSTMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WILL KEEP HIGH
CHC POPS ALL NIGHT (PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING OVERHEAD THROUGH 12Z
AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET LOCATION). EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY EASTERN ZONES) AS SFC FRONT SLIDES ACROSS AREA
SAT AFTN. FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LOW ALONG COAST WILL SLIDE INTO
PANHANDLE AND THEN DIVE INTO WY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ETA IS TOO
QUICK AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE... PREFER THE SLOWER AND
LOCATION OF LOW ON THE GFS.  DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO REGION FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS ZN 19
WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW AFTN/EVE
SHOWERS. GFS REFORMS A LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WED AND AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE BACK INTO AREA LATE WED INTO
THU AND FRI FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS.

WINTHER

KSFX...OPERATIONAL...VCP 21.

.PIH....RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS EVENING UNTIL 10 PM.
SEE LATEST BOIRFWPIH BULLETIN FOR DETAILS.

IDZ017>023-031-032-160000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
525 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO.  LOW
LEVELS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE DISTRICT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH FOR THE THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE WET BY LATER TONIGHT. FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO
FIRE WEATHER WATCH BULLETIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS...ALL WEATHER REPORTS ARE
MUCH APPRECIATED AND IMPORTANT...EVEN OBSERVED WEATHER THAT DOES
NOT REACH SEVERE CRITERIA.  TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR OTHER
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.