High Surf in Hawaii, August 31, 2003

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
10 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2003

SUMMARY...INCREASING WIND...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND FOR LABOR DAY AS
HURRICANE JIMENA PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON ACTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE
JIMENA. SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH IS STILL PUSHING THE DENSE OVERCAST
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTER...BUT THE CENTER TRACK IS STILL TOWARD
THE WEST AT 20 MPH. THE STORM HAS SHOWN SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT
AND THE FIRST AIR FORCE RECON FLIGHT INTO THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH THE FIRST VISUAL FIX CONFIRMS THIS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND TOO
WEAK. THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL HOWEVER INITIALIZES THE SYSTEM CLOSE
TO RECON AND SATELLITE FIX POSITION. USING THIS PROJECTION...THE
SYSTEM WILL STILL PASS CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE
BIG ISLAND. PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL CPHC FORECASTS ON JIMENA FOR
MORE DETAILS. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A WAS ISSUED AT 8 AM
HST OR 1800Z SUNDAY.

BASED UPON LATEST FORECAST...JIMENA WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD PATH
TAKING THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER IT WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF ROUGH WEATHER FOR
THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY MAUI AND LANAI. THE MAIN THREATS:
1. HIGH SURF. UNFORTUNATELY NO BUOYS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO PROVIDE
DEFINITIVE INFO...BUT EXPECT 8-12 FT SWELLS TO BEGIN ROLLING IN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. SWELLS...AND SURF...COULD BE HIGHER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF MAUI. STAY
ALERT TO LATEST UPDATES. FETCH WINDOW IS PRETTY NARROW...BUT MAUI IS
EXPECTED TO CATCH AT LEAST THE FRINGES. SINCE SWELL IS FROM
EAST-SOUTHEAST...MAUI IS EXPECTED TO PROTECT REMAINING ISLANDS AT
THIS TIME.
2. HIGH WINDS...BASED UPON ESTIMATES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE (35
MPH+) EXTENDING OUT 120 MILES FROM CENTER...MAINLY BIG ISLAND WILL
SEE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...BUT CHANNELLING EFFECTS COULD ALSO
CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MAUI. TOPOGRAPHY
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...AND COULD BE THAT LEEWARD AREAS MAY SEE SOME
STRONG DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED GUSTS. ONSET OF STRONG WINDS TO BEGIN LATE
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING MONDAY.
3. HEAVY RAINS...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT 900 AM FOR THE BIG
ISLAND. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE THAT SINCE JIMENA IS RELATIVELY
QUICK MOVING...COULD SEE SOMEWHERE IN RANGE OF 6-10 INCHES...
ENHANCED ALONG EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA AND
MAUNA KEA...AND IN THE KAU AREA.

DIDNT HIT WINDS AND RAIN TOO HARD UP AT OAHU AND KAUAI SIDE OF
STATE. SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY...PLUS SUBSIDENCE AROUND JIMENA MAY
SUPRESS SHOWERS THAT FAR NORTH OF THE STORM.

EXTENDED...ONCE JIMENA PASSES BY THE BIG ISLAND ON MONDAY...RAINFALL
MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE ON THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS
EAST OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND EVENTUALLY RETURN TO A
MORE TRADE WIND DIRECTION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN...MOVING TO MAINLY A CLIMATOLOGY
FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

MARINE...HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE WATERS EAST
OF MOLOKAI AND LANAI...INCLUDING THE MAUI COASTAL WATERS AND
CHANNELS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...INCLUDING THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. BOATS IN
AND AROUND THESE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME LOCAL MVFR FIRST HALF OF TODAY...
RAPIDLY GOING TO IFR THIS EVENING DOWN AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI.

.HFO...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG
ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. HIGH SURF WARNING BIG ISLAND...WITH AN
ADVISORY CONTINUING EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF MAUI. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

HFO TEAM TONITE
PUBLIC...FARRELL
SATELLITE...DONALDSON
MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...TANABE
CPHC...POWELL