Flash Flooding and Hail in Georgia, June 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
259 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

.OVERVIEW...MAIN STORY IS TROPICAL STORM BILL. THE REMAINS OF BILL
WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST TUE INTO WED.
THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF BILL SHOULD COME ACROSS NORTH
GA LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. ONCE THE REMAINS OF BILL PASS...A WEAK
TROUGH WILL BE LEFT IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TEMPS WILL WARM BACK TO
NORMAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE A NO 90 FORECAST FOR ATL DUE TO WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

.SHORT TERM...BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN AL MAY
MAKE IT INTO WEST GA BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS CWA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S IN NE GA TO MID 70S IN MIDDLE GA. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND WEAK DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN PLACE...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN NORTH GA OVERNIGHT. ETA/NGM HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTHWEST AND SLOW
WITH BILL WHILE UKMET/GFS MUCH CLOSER. PREFER UKMET MODEL FOR 3RD
DAY IN A ROW AND IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. UKMET UNIFIED MODEL
TENDS TO BE ONE OF THE BETTER MODELS TO DEAL WITH TROPICAL MODELS.
WILL USE GFS TOO AS IT IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE UKMET.

PE/PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2 INCHES ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL EULERIAN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY NORTH AND FAR
WEST GA TUE INTO PART OF WED. MID LEVEL VORT CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO PASS NEAR NW CORNER OF GA...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND JUST RIGHT
OF THE TRACK. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS.

CURRENTLY...EXPECT RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM WEST POINT TO ATHENS...WITH ISOLATED 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IN
FAR NORTH GA THRU WED. MIDDLE GA SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 INCH
RANGE WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 OR 3 INCHES.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE CAN HANDLE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN URBAN AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK UNDER WMO ID FGUS72 KFFC AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH UNTIL LIKELY THE 4 AM SHIFT TUE.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THIS EVENING IN FAR WEST
GA...AND WE NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA FOR FAR WEST THIS
EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL USE A BLEND OF THICKNESS/850 TEMPS/OBSERVED
TEMPS LAST FEW DAYS.

.EXTENDED...THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT QUITE A BIT BY THU/4TH OF JULY. PE
VALUES DROP TO 1.2 INCHES OR LESS. WILL LEAVE PREVIOUS EXTENDED
ALMOST AS IS. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS PER ENSEMBLE MODELS BY SUN/MON.
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 90 IN ATL THRU THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 70 83 69 79 / 40 60 80 50
KAHN 69 84 69 79 / 40 50 70 50
KGVL 69 79 68 79 / 40 60 80 50
KRMG 70 82 68 82 / 50 70 90 50
KCSG 72 86 71 84 / 40 50 50 50
KMCN 71 87 71 84 / 30 30 50 50

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

 NOEL/MOLLER

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-302145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM NORTH
FLORIDA EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM
BILL WILL MOVE NORTH INTO LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVES ON
SHORE INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH CAPES
RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1500 AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND MINUS 2 TO MINUS
3. WITH A NEAR SATURATED ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA...THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A
QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.