Flash Flooding in Florida, September 5, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
328 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2003

CURRENTLY: RADAR...SATELLITE...AND BUOY 42036 SHOW SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER WITH BETTER ORGANIZATION
TO BANDS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THESE BANDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD THE NATURE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SUN): HENRI WILL DICTATE THE ZONES THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH POPS...CLOUD COVER...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTH AND
CENTRAL. AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME THE RULE. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL CONVERGENT BANDS TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN BY SUNDAY...HOWEVER...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED (MON THRU FRI): HENRI FORECAST TO BE WELL OUT OF THE
PICTURE BY MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN IN ITS WAKE. NORTHWEST
FLOW ON MONDAY WILL GAVE WAY TO NORTHEAST FLOW BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST
BY THE GFS/MRF TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING FOR SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN NORMAL POPS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHERN FA. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME POPS SHOULD RETURN TO
NORMAL...AND COULD EVEN SEE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE EASTERLIES.

MARINE: CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT BE CHANGING A WHOLE
LOT. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IN CONVECTION MAY BECOME THE RULE OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BANDS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP. EVEN HAD A RECENT GUST TO 52 KNOTS AT BUOY 42036.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL START THE SLOW WINDING DOWN PROCESS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AS HENRI PULLS AWAY. WE SHOULD BE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS.

THANKS FOR COORD MIA.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 75/86/76/88 9644
FMY 75/87/76/89 7644
GIF 74/87/75/90 9644
SRQ 77/86/76/88 9644
BKV 74/85/73/88 9644

.TBW...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
    ...FLOOD WATCH FOR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
    ...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.

ALSHEIMER/JILLSON

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-051500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD...

TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
APPROXIMATELY 115 MILES WEST OF SAINT PETERSBURG.  DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY...WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL.  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY DEVELOP DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS WHICH ARE ALREADY NEAR
OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  WINDS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY INCREASE
TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ALONG THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN BAYPORT AND
CEDAR KEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  HOWEVER DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF HENRI.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. IF YOU
LIVE IN AN AREA THAT IS NEAR A RIVER OR STREAM OR IS PRONE TO
FLOODING YOU WILL WANT TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OGLESBY