Lightning Strike in Florida, November 6, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 6 2003

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO SCT SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING. MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE COMBINING
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND LIGHT WINDS TO AGAIN GENERATE
AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...SOME FOG
EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE IN FOG PRONE AREAS. MIN TEMPS TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.

MODELS BRING IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING TOMORROW AND PUSH VORT
MAX SE OVER THE S FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL REDUCE SHOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TO ISOLATED RANGE ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR
AREAS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE. MAX
TEMPS REMAIN WARM. FRI NIGHT AGAIN HAS FOG POTENTIAL WITH FOG FACTORS
IN PLACE. SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION SAT INCREASING NE
GRADIENT WINDS AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

EXTENDED(SUN-THU)...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MAY SEE A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MAINLY ON
SUNDAY WITHIN THE MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW...OTHERWISE BREEZY DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/PANHANDLE AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. GFS/MRF
SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES SO HAVE
OPTED TO DEPICT A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALL ZONES IN
THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES EXPECTED WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS CONTINUING.

MARINE...WEAK FLOW TO CONTINUE THRU FRI. FOG EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT AS WARM MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE TO CREATE SEA FOG AND RADIATIONAL FOG ADVECTS WESTWARD
OVER THE WATERS FOR COMBO EFFECT. SFC HIGH TO THEN BRIDGE INTO THE
REGION SAT INCREASING NE FLOW AND WINDS AND SEAS. GRADIENT TO REMAIN
TIGHT KEEPING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 071/086 071/085 2222
FMY 071/087 071/087 3323
GIF 069/086 070/085 3223
SRQ 070/085 070/085 2222
BKV 066/086 067/085 2222

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

RD

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-061645-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
545 AM EST THU NOV 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

DENSE FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILES OR LESS...WILL BE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING.

LATER THIS MORNING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING...AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
.SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MARINE WATERSPOUTS. IF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY.

RKR