Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, May 17, 2003

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2003

SEA BREEZE NOW MOVING WEST THRU THE COASTAL CTYS ATTM. LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS FAVORING FASTER INLAND PUSH IN THIS AREA.
DESPITE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY AND MAY
RESULT IN FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND S WHERE
MOISTURE VALUES ARE GREATER. STEERING FLOW IS MINIMAL AND ACTVTY
SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE AND ANY MESO-BNDRYS THAT FORM.
WILL UP POPS FOR EVE ACTVTY OVER THE INTERIOR...ESP S.

MODELS INITIALIZED CUTOFF OVER THE LOWER MISS VLY QUITE WELL BUT
IMMEDIATELY DROP IT SOUTHWARD...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT HAPPENING AS
THE FEATURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E. THIS TREND COMPLICATES FCST AS TO
HOW FEATURE INTERACTS WITH MESO-SCALE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AND ANY N
BRANCH WAVES IF ITS FCST PLACEMENT PROVES TO BE INCORRECT. THUS FAR
ETA AND GFS GUIDANCE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT. FNTL BNDRY/BACKDOOR CD
FNT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS NEARLY STATIONARY ATTM. SHORT WAVE
OVER THE GRT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLC COAST AND
RAPIDLY DEVELOP SFC WAVE ALONG PERSISTENT BNDRY. THIS LOW LEVEL WAVE
IS FCST TO PUSH BACKDOOR FNT THRU THE SE ON TUESDAY. RATE OF SFC
DEVELOPMENT AND ADVANCMENT OF FNT VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. ABV FACTORS
MAKE FOR A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FCST.

SUNDAY...BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS FCST AREA.
RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
AGAIN FAVOR THE INTERIOR FOR AFTN/EVE SHRA/TS.

MONDAY...RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SFC WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. FNTL BNDRY MAY BE ON DOORSTEP FROM THE NE LATE IN
THE DAY. SYNOPTIC BNDRY AND SEA BREEZE SHOULD BOTH PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT/VRBL BUT BECOMES MAINLY E-W AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE FOLDS OVER TOP OF WEAKENING CUTOFF OVER THE GULF. AS
MENTIONED ABV EXACT SCENARIO FOR THIS FEATURE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/EXTENDED...DEEP ERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS BACKDOOR FNTL BNDRY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND GETS RUN OVER BY LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVING
OFF THE E COAST. GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBTANTIAL AMTS OF DRY AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE E. WILL DELAY DRYING SOME BUT LOWER POPS AND
RESTICT TO INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SRN WATERS ON SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE
CIRCUALTION EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN OCCURING FIRST S OF THE CAPE.
BACKDOOR CD FNT HUNG UP OFF THE S CAROLINA COAST NOW FCST TO PUSH
INTO AREA FROM THE NE ON TUESDAY.

PRELIM...
DAB WW 071/089 070/087 073 05131
MCO WW 072/091 071/090 071 05232
MLB WW 074/089 073/088 073 05-21

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOTTMAN
AVIATION/FIRE...WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
171900-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
545 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACT.  THE GREATEST CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS.  STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW TODAY...
MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.  THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS FAVORING THE INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
STATE TUESDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS.
STORM CHANCES MAY DIMINISH A LITTLE MID WEEK...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

INCREASING SWELLS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RL

FLZ058-059-064-172000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2003

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OVER 40 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WESTERN SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES...

AT 315 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN WESTERN INDIAN RIVER AND
SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY WEST.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE APPROACH
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND TAKE SHELTER BEFORE STORMS ARE OVERHEAD.

WIMMER