Hail in Florida, July 9, 2003

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
225 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

.DISCUSSION...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
STORMS OVER VOLUSIA...LAKE...ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON. CU DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE STORMS IN THE EVENING
WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THESE NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE HAVE ERODED DUE TO DRYING ALOFT. WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC OF
PRECIP MENTIONED FOR THE INTERIOR AND NRN SECTIONS IN THE EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

DOMESTIC MODEL DATA LIMITED TO NOGAPS AND AFWA MM5 THIS AFTERNOON.

THU...SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ALBEIT WEAKENING ALOFT
WITH LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE SE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND S/SW ACROSS
VOLUSIA COUNTY. AIRMASS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OR MAYBE A SLIGHT
MOISTENING WITH SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME
WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER INTERIOR...BUT WILL
CARRY A SCATTERED CHANCE AREA WIDE.

FRI-TUE...T.S. CLAUDETTE IS FCST TO MOVE WEST TO THE YUCATAN ON FRI
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OR BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT/SUN. A WEAK SFC
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE STATES FRI AND THEN SLOW ACROSS SRN GA
ON SAT. A WEAK MID LVL AND SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THEN BEGIN A SLOW NORTH MOVEMENT ON SUNDAY. PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CLIMO MENTION OF AFTN TSTMS IN THE FCST
EACH DAY. HIGHER THETA E AIR WORKING NORTHWARD TWD S FL BY SUN AFTN
ASCD WITH PERIPHERAL FLOW WELL EAST OF CLAUDETTE. THIS MAY BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS BY MONDAY BUT WILL ALLOW NEXT CREW TO EVALUATE
NEW GLOBAL SUITES FROM NCEP FOR ANY CHANGES TO GOING FCST.

.MARINE...WEAK GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUM DURING
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND SUGGESTS A N TO S SPLIT IN PRIMARY WIND
DIRECTION ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS. SEAS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 074/090 074/090 074 13242
MCO BB 074/093 074/092 074 24242
MLB BB 075/090 075/089 074 13142
VRB BB 075/090 075/090 075 13142 44

.MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PENDERGRAST/CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
092100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS LIMITED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOW WEAKENED.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED STRONG
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY AND
THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR.

WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE INLAND WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF
A DEVELOPING STORM TO AVOID THE LIGHTNING DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY...WITH STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED STORM SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

JP

FLZ044-092015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL EAST NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER CASSIA
TO NEAR MOUNT PLYMOUTH...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM HAS
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NEAR THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER. PERSONS OUTDOORS IN NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A STURDY LOCATION INDOORS SHOULD THESE
STORMS APPROACH.

JP