Hail in Florida, July 30 to 31, 2003

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
252 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

DISCUSSION...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS MUCH MORE ACTIVE
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH OUTFLOW HELPING IT MAKE FASTER PROGRESS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND...A BIT SLOWER NORTH OF THE CAPE. 15Z CAPE
SOUNDING IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN
STEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE COIN SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. GRAPHICAL HWO NICELY DEPICTS AREA OF CONCERN.
PRIMARY BOUNDARY COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR INLAND FROM THE COAST BUT
EAST OF ORLANDO EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT LINGER AS
LATE AS LAST NIGHT SINCE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY GETTING WORKED OVER.
WILL WORD FOR SCATTERED EVENING COVERAGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NOS
ALONG THE COAST.

THU...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH VERY LIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF 2
INCHES PWAT. SHOULD SEE A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND IN THE MORNING WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BY MID DAY AND MOVING INLAND
INITIALLY OVER THE TREASURE AND SPACE COASTS. STEERING FLOW ALOFT
STILL PROGD FROM THE WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AND
ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW
SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A GENERAL
DRIFT BACK TWD THE EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT
FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONG LATE AFTN
AND EVENING STORMS WITH ENHANCEMENT DUE TO BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.

FRI...SFC RIDGE AXIS POSITION REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH
MAYBE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD DRIFT TO CENTRAL FL. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACTS TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN RIDGE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ALOFT WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY LIGHT.
WITH ABSENCE OF STEERING WILL REDUCE POPS SLIGHTLY TO 40 PERCENT
...HOWEVER THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN COULD GET LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS
DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.

WEEKEND...CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE RIDGE CORRESPONDINGLY
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FL PENINSULA. WEAK WIND REGIME THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER FAVORS SCATTERED COVERAGE EACH DAY. MAYBE A HIGHER INLAND VS
COASTAL RAIN CHANCE BUT WILL LEAVE UNIFORM COVERAGE ATTM AS LATE
MORNING SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS.

EXTENDED...AXIS OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS POSITION
OVER FL PENINSULA WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEX. COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL VARY LITTLE EACH DAY WITH LOCAL INFLUENCE TIED TO
POSITION OF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED AFTERNOON PCPN
WITH CLIMO RANGE OF TEMPS WILL BE USED.

.MARINE...EXPECT EVENING STORMS TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE TOWARD THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH PORTION THU AND FRI. WEEKEND...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
WITH RIDGE AXIS NEARBY...WINDS WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED WITH DAILY
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION FOR NEARSHORE WATERS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

TKS FOR COORD MIA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB TT 071/091 073/090 074 45343
MCO TT 073/092 073/092 074 35343
MLB TT 072/091 073/090 074 45343
VRB TT 071/091 073/090 074 45343 44

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
302000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
SLOWLY INLAND. THE MORNING WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCHES FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL AND TAMPA BAY INDICATED THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A LOCAL EXPERIMENTAL MODEL OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA SHOWS
INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON...JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THIS AREA...STRETCHING FROM
VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR
SEEING THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.

THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MID AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS APPROACH THE COAST AND COLLIDE WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING COIN SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. MOST LIGHTNING FATALITIES AND INJURIES OCCUR IN
OPEN FIELDS OR UNDER TREES. IF OUTDOORS...AVOID BEING THE TALLEST
OBJECT AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING OR CAR. TELEPHONE LINES
AND METAL PIPES CONDUCT ELECTRICITY SO AVOID USING THE TELEPHONE OR
TAKING A SHOWER DURING A STORM. COMPUTERS...TELEVISION SETS AND
OTHER HOME APPLIANCES ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY BE
DAMAGED BY NEARBY LIGHTNING STRIKES. YOU CAN BE INJURED OR KILLED IF
LIGHTNING STRIKES NEARBY.

ALSO...MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAIN TO REDUCE THE RISK OF
HYDROPLANING. BOATERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM
THE MAINLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AND MOVE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION TO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK
SOUTH SUNDAY AND ALLOW STORMS TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONG
STORMS DEVELOP...AND RELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

KELLY

FLZ045-144-301930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS 6 MILES WEST OF ANIMAL
KINGDOM...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE MAGIC KINGDOM...ANIMAL KINGDOM AND PLEASURE ISLAND. FREQUENT
TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER IN AN
ENCLOSED BUILDING OR CAR AWAY FROM TREES.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

28

FLZ045-046-302015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
331 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...SOUTHERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER THE
METRO ORLANDO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE FERN PARK...UNION PARK AND ALTAMONTE SPRINGS.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

FLZ047-302030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MICCO...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE PALM BAY INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH AND MELBOURNE
BEACH.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

FLZ046-141-147-302100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
410 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN
VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER LAKE
MARY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. FURTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF SEMINOLE...EASTERN ORANGE AND
SOUTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THE COMMUNITIES THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS WILL BE OSTEEN OVIEDO...BITHLO AND CHRISTMAS.

THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.