Hail in Florida, July 29, 2003

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

.DISCUSSION...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE (ECSB) HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH
OF THE CAPE AND IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INLAND...BASED ON SFC
OBSERVATIONS AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR. THE SEA BREEZE IS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AND WILL PUSH INLAND VERY SLOWLY
THERE AS WELL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS EXTENDING NE OFFSHORE THE CAPE. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE ECSB FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
11AM CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS 2 PCP WATER WITH -8C AT H5 AND A RATHER
UNSTABLE ATM WITH LI -8. STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES (EAST AND WEST) INTERACT WITH LAKE BOUNDARIES AND
EACH OTHER LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

WED...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEING REPLACED BY A WEAK H25 RIDGE...WITH OVERALL
SLIGHT WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF TUTT AXIS.  CURRENTLY THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE AXIS...SO POPS ON THE HIGH END OF
THE SCATTERED RANGE LOOKS GOOD.  LOW LEVEL RIDGE NOT PROGGED TO MAKE
A LOT OF NORTHWARD MOTION SO SUFFICIENT SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE NEAR THE EAST COAST.  LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST PLANNED.

THU/FRI...FORECAST COMPLICATED BY GFS SHOWING A DEVELOPING EASTERLY
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.  THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF
SHIFTING THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHWARD...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT
TROUGH IS DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  WITHOUT THE SURFACE WAVE...
THE RIDGE WOULD ACTUALLY BE SAGGING SOUTH OR HOLDING ACROSS THE
AREA.  WILL FOLLOW THE PATH OF PERSISTENCE (40/50 POPS) UNTIL THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS BASICALLY SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA.  TAKING A PEEK AT
SOME OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

WAY TO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN ANY SPECIFICS WITH THE CURVE BALL THROWN
BY THE LAST 2 GFS RUNS WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED LOW.  MUST THEREFORE FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST UNTIL
THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE ON GIVING A YES OR NO TO THE LATEST GFS
SOLUTION.  THIS NECESSITATES A NEAR CLIMO RIDGE POSTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA AND 30/40 POPS.

.MARINE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RIDGE POSITION AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE
DISCUSSION.  WILL PLAN ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD MIGRATION FROM CURRENT
POSITION TO OUR SOUTH...TO ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA.  WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH RIDGE AXIS NEARBY...SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS...UNLESS GFS IS
ONTO SOMETHING WITH THE WAVE/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB TT 072/091 073/090 074 2525
MCO TT 073/092 073/092 074 2525
MLB TT 074/090 074/089 075 3525
VRB TT 073/090 074/089 075 3525

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....LASCODY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
292007-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1021 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED SOUTH TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STORMS APPROACH THE EAST COAST AND COLLIDE
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES IN MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. SEEK
SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING OR AUTOMOBILE AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A
STORM. PICNIC SHELTERS AND DUGOUTS MAY KEEP YOU DRY BUT THEY OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. MOTORISTS SHOULD REDUCE
THEIR SPEED IN HEAVY RAIN TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. BOATERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

SOUTHWEST STEERING WINDS WILL PERSIST AND FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STORMS PUSHING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONG
STORMS DEVELOP...AND RELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

KELLY