Hail in Florida, July 25, 2003

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

.DISCUSSION...CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OFFSHORE NE PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY DRIVING CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA... WITH MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS LASTING INTO
THE EVENING.

WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM OUT OF THE PICTURE AND RIDGE AXIS LIFTING
NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY...DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION...FAVORING THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING INTENSIFIES COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. DURING THE AFTERNOONS...CONVECTION WILL BE MOST COMMON
OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH GREATER STABLIZATION LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEVELOPING EASTERN U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REACH REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES...CAUSING SURFACE/MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO DROP SOUTH OF CWA. WHILE STEERING FLOW WILL REVERT TO S/SW
COMPONENT...SURFACE GRADIENT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE FORMATION. WILL INDICATE NEAR CLIMO POPS AREAWIDE...WITH
EVENING RAIN CHANCES ABOVE CLIMO ALONG EAST COAST. MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

MID-LATE WEEK...EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH WILL RELAX
AND LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN LIFT NORTHWARD. WITH RIDGE AXIS
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL CWA WED/THU...LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN DAILY CONVECTION. RIDGE MAY AGAIN
BE NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...FLIPPING PATTERN BACK TOWARDS
ONSHORE FLOW AND EARLY CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA...AND
OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIFTS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...
GRADIENT E/SE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TUE/WED...LOCALLY MODIFIED BY AFTERNOON
COASTAL SEABREEZES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 073/088 074/089 074 23232
MCO TB 073/091 074/092 074 34242
MLB BB 075/088 075/089 074 23232
VRB BB 075/088 074/089 074 23232

.MLB...NONE.

SHORT-TERM...HIRSCH
LONG-TERM...SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
252100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
931 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...NORTH OF DAYTONA BEACH. ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE A POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

CONSIDERABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL DELAY SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY
THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES SLOWLY
INLAND.

AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE MOST HEATING COULD EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG
STORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND 2 TO 3 INCH
DOWNPOURS. ONE AREA THAT MAY BE THE MOST FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS IS
JUST INLAND IN THE COUNTIES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A LITTLE.
A WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS BACK TO THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES TO THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

FLZ058-059-251900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
231 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

...STRONG STORM  WITH REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER  OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY...

AT 223 PM EDT...OKEECHOBEE LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE ARE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AREA AND THERE IS A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FUNNEL
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NORTHERN LAKE SHORE. RESIDENTS OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AND
BE READY TO TAKE QUICK COVER IF DANGEROUS WEATHER THREATENS.