Lightning Strike in Florida, July 22, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

CURRENTLY: HAD A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ALREADY TODAY...AND EXPECT
A COUPLE MORE OVER THE INTERIOR BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER.

SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU THUR): RIDGE WILL SIT OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROF SUPPORTS A FEW STRONGER STORMS BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE A
LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SEA BREEZE TAKES LONGER TO DEVELOP
FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH.

TEMPS SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED (FRI THRU TUE): TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY TD 6 STILL EXPECTED
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE/SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT TIMING AND
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ALL AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...INCLUDING OVER WATER AREAS...AND POPS AT 50 FOR ALL LAND
AREAS. SFC RIDGE WELL NORTH OF FA FRI THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN STARTS A
TRIP BACK TO THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS CONVECTION WILL FAVOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND HAVE HIGHER POPS THERE THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...
GFS/MRF MOVES RIDGE AXIS TO SOUTH OF FA...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE
OF THE EASTERN US UPPER TROUGH THIS SUMMER...SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT
IT.

MARINE: WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO DODGE.

FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 78/90/77/90 1525
FMY 77/93/76/92 2426
GIF 75/93/75/92 2525
SRQ 77/90/76/90 1525
BKV 72/90/73/90 1625

.TBW...NONE.

ALSHEIMER/EJ

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-221400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF ONSHORE NORTH OF BRADENTON THIS MORNING. WATERSPOUTS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. REMEMBER...WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM FROM A TOWERING
CUMULUS CLOUD...NOT JUST A THUNDERSTORM.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR LEVY COUNTY AND
THE INLAND COUNTIES OF SUMTER...POLK...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...AND
DESOTO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE AS IT MOVES EAST. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ISOLATED MORNING
STORMS NEAR THE COAST AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN CHANGES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR WATERSPOUTS FROM BRADENTON TO
CEDAR KEY. SPOTTERS IN INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD WATCH FOR HAIL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.

NOAH

MARINE LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
1145 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....MARINE SUBZONE....   GMZ  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ......MARINE ZONE......

1127 AM    OLD TAMPA BAY             830  WATERSPOUT
07/22/03   TAMPA BAY WATERS               WATERSPOUT BEGAN AT 1127
                                          AM AND ENDED AT 1137 AM.
                                          SIGHTED BY OBSERVER AT
                                          TAMPA INTERNATIONAL
                                          AIRPORT.

FLZ043-048>051-GMZ830-221700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS OF SUMTER...
EASTERN HERNANDO AND PASCO COUNTIES...NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH AND
EASTERN PINELLAS COUNTIES.

A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH THROUGH 1 PM AND AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM WILDWOOD
AND THE VILLAGES SOUTH THROUGH BUSHNELL...DADE CITY LAND O LAKES
...LUTZ AND LOCATIONS AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OLD TAMPA BAY
AND NORTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY UNTIL 1 PM.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FUNNEL CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FLZ051-052-221800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
121 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAKELAND...

A THUNDERSTORM ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT WILLOW
OAK...PLANT CITY...WINSTON AND LAKELAND...UNTIL 200 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.

FLZ052-221800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...

AT 145 PM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
BETWEEN LAKELAND AND MULBERRY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2800 8208 2787 8193 2812 8162 2827 8180

FLZ042-221845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
216 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN CITRUS COUNTY...

AT 216 PM EDT...A SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST SOUTH
OF CRYSTAL RIVER. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2879 8274 2866 8259 2891 8228 2906 8246

FLZ052-221930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
241 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT FORT MEADE
AND LAKE WALES...UNTIL 330 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF
INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.