Hail in Florida, July 21, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
101 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

CURRENTLY: POPCORN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER WAY...
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS IS KEEPING THEM FROM LASTING TOO LONG
SO FAR. THEY ARE MOVING SLOWLY INLAND AS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU WED): NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WEATHER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN FA WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN TACT. THIS WILL MEAN
MOSTLY LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...
SHIFTING INLAND FOR THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH MINS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEAR
THE COAST.

EXTENDED (THU THRU MON): LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
DUE TO TD 6. CURRENT FORECAST TAKES TD 6 TO THE SOUTH COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA AS A TROPICAL STORM THURSDAY MORNING...THEN INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...DECIDED NOT TO
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FROM WHAT WAS IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. I DID TAKE
THE WINDS A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY. ASIDE
FROM TD 6...SHOULD SEE STANDARD AFTERNOON/EVENING TYPE CONVECTION
EACH DAY WITH POPS NEAR CLIMO. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY TO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SATURDAY...THEN NORTH OF
FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TRANSITION FROM
MAINLY INLAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY TO MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE: GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN LEG. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
THE ONSHORE TURN IN THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...WIND AND SEAS ARE
DEPENDENT UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF TD 6.

FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS.

ISC GRIDS ARE IN.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 78/90/76/90 1525
FMY 76/92/75/92 2535
GIF 75/92/75/92 3535
SRQ 76/90/76/90 1525
BKV 71/90/73/89 2525

.TBW...NONE.

ALSHEIMER/EJ

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-211400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND JUST OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ABOUT 5 TO 10 MILES INLAND
BEFORE NOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WATERSPOUTS ARE LIKELY TODAY. REMEMBER...WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM IN
BUILDING CLOUDS THAT HAVE NOT YET BECOME A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY IF YOU ARE OUT ON THE WATER OR IF YOU LIVE
NEAR THE COAST.

FURTHER INLAND...THE SCATTERED STORMS WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
ISOLATED MORNING STORMS NEAR THE COAST AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN CHANGES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK.

MEANWHILE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A
TROPICAL STORM AND MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK...AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. ON THE
INTERNET...VISIT WEATHER DOT GOV...THAT IS W E A T H E R DOT G O V.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PLEASE
CALL IN ALL REPORTS OF WATERSPOUTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OR LAW ENFORCEMENT.

NOAH

FLZ052-212145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
456 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT HAINES
CITY AND LOUGHMAN...UNTIL 545 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.