Tornado in Florida, February 16, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003

SYNOPSIS: IR/WV SATELLITE/RUC H5 COMPOSITE SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING
INVOF INDY W/ TROUGH SWD INTO GULF STATES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
LOW NEAR NC OUTER BANKS W/ FRONT EXTENDING THRU SE GA/FL BIG BEND &
INTO NRN GULF. A COLD WEDGE WAS ALSO EVIDENT FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
GA. KTLH/KVAX 88DS SHOW A FEW PATCHES OF -RA LINGERING OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF S GA ZONES. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE OVERCAST W/ TEMPS
RANGING FROM MID 40S AT ABY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE BIG BEND. WINDS
AHEAD OF FRONT WERE SWLY & NWLY BEHIND IT.

MODELS/FORECAST: BOTH ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR W/ LOCATION/STRENGTH OF
UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS W/ UPPER LOW OVER OH VALLEY. MAIN VORT
ENERGY OVER MS/LA IS PROGGED TO SCOOT ACROSS AL/GA TODAY & OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...A ZONAL PATTERN
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST MOVES UP
THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS W/ NOREASTER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES E TO THE MS
VALLEY TODAY & SE OVER THE GULF COAST/SERN CONUS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY.
MODEL TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING ABOVE 850 MB W/
BOUNDARY LAYER NOT DECREASING UNTIL TONIGHT. THE UPSHOT IS A CLOUDY
MORNING W/ CLOUDS DECREASING THIS AFTN. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER
TODAY W/ M/SUNNY DAYS & M/CLEAR NIGHTS THRU WED. FORESEE LITTLE OR
NO CHANGE TO TEMPS W/ GRADUAL MODERATION TO NORMAL VALUES.

MARINE: W-NW WINDS AT BUOY 42039 SUSTAINED AT 21 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 25
& SEAS AT 7 FT. THESE CONDITIONS EXTEND FURTHER W & WILL SPREAD INTO
THE ERN LEGS AFTER DAYBREAK. ERGO...WILL HOIST ADVISORY FOR THE
MARINE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING...THEN DROPPING TO CAUTION IN THE
AFTN. WINDS BECOME NLY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH MOVES N OF WATERS...THEN BECOMING SE &
INCREASING BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS TODAY. ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLE LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RH OVER INLAND FL ZONES & A WATCH WILL BE POSTED.

EXTENDED (THU-SUN): NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES GLEANED FROM LATEST GFS.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER ERN CONUS THURSDAY MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH MOVES E OF ROCKIES BY FRIDAY W/ LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER CO. SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT HEADS TOWARD
GREAT LAKES LATE FRI W/ TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO WRN GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST FRIDAY W/ SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING.
PCPN ENDS FROM W TO E W/ FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN COOLER & DRIER
FOR SUNDAY.

PRELIM CCF NUMBERS:
TLH 062 035 065 035 071 00000
PFN 059 039 061 043 069 00000
DHN 055 036 061 042 067 00000
ABY 057 035 063 039 068 00000
VLD 061 037 065 039 071 00000
CTY 064 038 066 037 073 00000

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ750-755-770-775.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTN INLAND ZONES.

MAJ

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH
MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE...PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE SQUALL LINE WOULD BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY. AFTER BEING OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE MORNING...THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD THEN
AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA
AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG
BEND SUNDAY EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HOWEVER...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

48-TURNAGE