Hail in Florida, April 9, 2003

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003

CURRENT/TONIGHT...MADE LAST MINUTE UPDATE TO SHAVE POPS BACK ACROSS
THE NRN HALF CWA AND NUDGE UP 10% IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE SRN HALF.
APPEARS TO BE WORKING TO A POINT AS CELLULAR CONVECTION IS NOW
REFIRING...HOWEVER THE CU FIELD ACROSS THE NORTH REALLY SEEMS TO BE
CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EVEN FARTHER NW...CONVECTIVE CU FIELD
BENEATH THE STRONG COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND
INCREASING IN COVG/INTENSITY. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE OVERESTIMATED QPF
IN A BIG WAY TODAY...AND IS PROBABLY DOING SO THROUGH 00Z AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED EVENING POPS FOR
RESIDUAL PRECIP AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND THE LOW CENTER
PUSHES EWD THROUGH NORTH FL/SOUTH GA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SYNOPTIC
UVM SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL...THOUGH PRIMARY SLUG OF H25 DIVG PUSHES
NE OF AREA BY 06Z.

THU-SAT...WINDY/COLDER WX BEGINS THU. THE BIG THREE HAVE REALLY
SLOWED THINGS DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE
CYCLONE WILL TRUDGE EWD...AND THEN SPIN UP/CAPTURE ITS SFC LOW AS
IT BECOMES ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED BY 12Z. AS THE SFC SYS SPINS
UP OVERNIGHT/THU...PGRAD TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND RESULTS IN ONE
OF THE WINDIER DAYS WEVE SEEN IN THESE PARTS IN A WHILE. CURRENT
FCST GETS US INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THU. PLAN TO HEADLINE
ZFP AND HIT HARD IN HWO. MET/MAV KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND MAY
NOT BE ABLE TO RULE OUT SOME LOW TOP SPITS OF RAIN THU/THU NIGHT
BENEATH THE COLD CORE LOW...GIVEN RESIDUAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND
WHAT SHOULD BE SOME VERY STEEP SFC-H50 LAPSE RATES WITH H50 TEMPS AS
LOW AS -22C/H85 TEMPS +3 TO +5C (NEARLY +1C ACCORDING TO THE GFS).
WILL GO WITH EITHER 10 OR 20 POPS. SINCE IT SNOWED ALONG THE EAST
COAST THIS YEAR - WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PIREPS FOR GRAUPEL
OR SMALL HAIL. (TRY TO RECALL THE LAST TIME A SUB 550DM LOW CENTER
MOVED ACROSS NORTH FL DURING APRIL). WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
FRI AS THE DEEP LAYER LOW SLOWLY EASES UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DRY AND
MILDER SAT AS WINDS RELAX.

SUN-WED...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH PUSHES SW ALONG THE SE US/NE FL COAST
AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES RIDGE SLIDES SLOWLY EWD. WILL INDICATE A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THROUGOUT...ESP SUN INVOF THE SFC TROUGH.
LIGHT FLOW BECOMING EAST AND THEN SE AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO NUDGE
EWD THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH DAY 7...WITH NEXT
POTENTIAL JUST BEYOND (DAY 8).

MARINE...SCA CONDS TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT...THEN WINDS/SEAS REALLY
GET CRANKING STARTING THU. NOT QUITE GOING WITH THE NEAR-GALE CONDS
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...HOWEVER WILL PUSH WINDS UP TO 25KT (MAYBE
EVEN 25-30KT FOR THE FLG-COF LEG) FOR MOST OF THE THU THROUGH FRI
PERIOD. WINDS BEGIN TO WANE FRI AFTNN AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW
HAZARD CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE D5 CYCLE.

FIRE WX...WILL RAISE RED FLAG WARNING FOR HIGH DISPERSION FOR ALL
ZONES ON THU. WILL ALSO SEE RHS DIP INTO THE MID 30 PERCENT RANGE
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS WELL ABOVE 20 MPH. ON FRI...WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE GREATER THAN 15 MPH WITH MIN RHS FROM 35-40 PCT AND
DISPERSION INDICES CLOSE TO 75. WILL WAIT ON 4TH PERIOD WATCH AND
LET MID CREW TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z GUID.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB NB 055/069 049/071 051 60322
MCO NB 057/070 050/074 053 60322
MLB NB 059/075 051/076 054 60322=

.MLB...SCA FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
    ...RED FLAG WARNING ALL COUNTIES (HIGH DISPERSION INDICES)

PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE...VOLKMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
100900-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
530 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003

.DAY ONE...THURSDAY

...WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND USHER IN WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO THE EXPECTED
HIGHER WINDS ON THURSDAY. DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON
AREA LAKES AND DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY AS THEY CROSS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

MORE SO...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY DUE
TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THAT ANY NEW OR EXISTING WILD FIRES WILL SPREAD MORE
READILY.

OVER THE MARINE AREA...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. MARITIME
WINDS WILL BLOW OFFSHORE AT 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY...BUILDING SEAS TO
4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 7 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS ON
THE INTRACOASTAL WILL BE VERY ROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOME THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN
GUSTY WELL INTO FRIDAY. CAUTION WILL BE ADVISED ON AREA LAKES. OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS OF 7 TO
9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. AFTER FRIDAY...THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
WILL DECREASE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ADVISED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED. ALSO...PLEASE REPORT ANY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE.

AC/DS

AMZ555-FLZ054-059-092215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
531 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003

...STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE ST LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COASTS...

AT 530 PM...STRONG STORMS WERE APPROACHING THE COAST BETWEEN VERO
BEACH AND FORT PIERCE. THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL AS THE MOVE
ACROSS THE COAST THROUGH 6 PM. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
SHELTER FROM THE STORMS. LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

GLITTO

AMZ550-FLZ147-100014-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
743 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003

...STRONG STORM OVER NORTH BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 745 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS JUST SOUTH OF TITUSVILLE...
MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE STORM MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY A
WATERSPOUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS TITUSVILLE...THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR
SHORE COASTAL WATERS. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE SHELTER FROM
THE STORMS. LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

GLITTO