Flood in Delaware, December 17, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 AM EST WED DEC 17 2003

WE ARE GOING TO DO A QUICK AS CAN BE UPDATE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS IN
ERN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TFG

PREV AFD *********************************************************

DISC: 100TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE FIRST FLIGHT NOW LETS SEE IF THIS
FORECAST CAN GET OFF THE GROUND. SFC HIGH ANCHORED IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL INCREASE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PCPN SHOWING UP ON THE LWX RADAR AND
COLD FRONTAL PCPN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY STATE. NOT MUCH W/B
HAPPENING HERE UNTIL THE WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT OVER VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING AND BEGINNING TO INJEST A GOOD DEAL OF ATLC MOISTURE UP THRU
CFA. SATL SHOWING A TROP FEED SRN FLA TO NC COAST BUT THIS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE AND SPARE US FROM MUCH HEAVIER RAIN. UVV BULLSEYE
PIVOTS OFFSHORE EVEN THOUGH SYSTEM BECOMES NEG TILTED IN TIME. EXCV
RAINFALL EVENT THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY. A SWATH OF GREATER THAN 1.5
TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE PCPN AMNTS IN LAST
COUPLE MONTHS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 180% OF NORMAL. EXPECTING PCPN
FROM TODAYS EVENT TO BE ALL RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING. SHOULD NOT BE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GROUND FOR ONE W/B TOO WARM
TODAY MOST AREAS. MAY ISSUE AN SPS THIS MORNING OR JUST COVER WITH
HWO BUT ADVISORY CRIT FOR FIRST PERIOD SNOWS 2 INCHES FOR SRN AREAS
AND 3 ELSEWHERE. HAVE SEEN STRONG EVAPORATION COOLING RESULT IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND CAUSING HAVOC ON THE
ROADS. NEVER A DULL MOMENT

AS FOR THE RIVER STREAMS...FFA IS IN EFFECT AND THIS IS PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE WITH EARLIER THINKING FROM HPCS OUTLOOK FOR PART OF THE
CFA. WONT TAKE MUCH AT ALL TO INITIATE FLOODING. A COUPLE OF SPOTS
ARE STILL ABOVE THE CAUTIONARY STAGE THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN STORE. NOTHING NEW OF LATE...SEEMS 25 MPH IS A
CALM DAY. HAD A RARE EVENT THE OTHER DAY WHEN WINDS FROM E-ESE
PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF 80 MPH ON OUR OUTER BARRIER ISLANDS. TDYS
WINDS AT 80H ARE 50-55KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY HEAVY RAIN
BANDS WHICH COULD TRANSPORT SOME OF THE WIND TO SFC. IN ANY EVENT
GALES HAVE BEEN RAISED ON THE COAST ESP FOR CAA WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE STORM.

ANY STREET FLOODING IN THE USUAL SHORE SPOTS W/B RESULT OF RAIN
AND APPROACHING HIGH TIDE. TIDES ALONE NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM SANDWICHED BETWEEN FULL/NEW MOON CYCLE.

REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR MINS ON SUN. THANKS TO ALL
FOR COORD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MPO 40 27 30 21 / 100 70 70 30
ABE 41 30 38 24 / 100 50 20 20
RDG 41 27 38 23 / 100 50 10 10
PHL 47 32 42 26 / 100 40 10 10
12N 38 27 30 20 / 100 80 50 30
SMQ 47 26 39 25 / 100 50 10 10
TTN 51 31 40 26 / 100 50 10 10
MIV 51 32 43 27 / 100 30 10 10
N55 51 32 45 28 / 100 30 10 10
ACY 52 31 43 27 / 100 30 10 10
ILG 47 29 42 26 / 100 30 10 10
DOV 50 31 43 26 / 100 10 10 10
GED 51 31 45 26 / 100 10 10 10
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH 54-55-60>62-67>71.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH 1-7>10-12-13-15>19.
DE...FLOOD WATCH 1.
MD...FLOOD WATCH 8.
MARINE/OCEAN...GALE WARNING ENTIRE DE/NJ CSTS.
MARINE/DEL BAY...SCA ADVISORY.

SEE YA

EBERWINE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EST WED DEC 17 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WESTERN CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NONE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AND ANY
FLOODING REPORTS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

EBERWINE