An upper level weather disturbance brought heavy snow to the higher elevations of the Upper Arkansas River Basion. Six inches of snow was noted at the Monarch Ski Area in Chaffee county, while 7 inches of snow occurred at Leadville in Lake county.
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The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
An upper level weather disturbance brought heavy snow to the higher elevations of the Upper Arkansas River Basion. Six inches of snow was noted at the Monarch Ski Area in Chaffee county, while 7 inches of snow occurred at Leadville in Lake county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 2:45 PM MST, 15 minutes earlier.
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 245 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2003 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY) MAIN PROBLEM IS SNOWFALL IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY...LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING OVER THE COLLEGIATE RANGE AND AROUND LEADVILLE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT PRODUCED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ON THE PLAINS. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. .TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. AIR ALOFT IS CHILLY WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -26C WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. I SEE NO REASON WHY THE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE COLLEGIATE RANGES AND LAKE COUNTY WOULD QUIT. DYNAMICS ARE NEUTRAL...BUT CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL NIGHT. I UPPED THE POPS OVER THESE REGIONS TO LIKELY AND I WILL PUT IN SOME SUB ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS. OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...CONVECTION WILL END BY SUNSET...AND I WILL ADD SOME SMALL POPS FOR THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENT MINS IN THE GRIDS AGREE WITH WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS A SMALL SPREAD. I WILL NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH. .SATURDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. 300-500MB Q VECTORS SUGGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT IS RELATIVELY COLD WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -8C AND 500MB TEMPS NEAR -28C. I RAN THE SNOW MODEL AND GOT AROUND 0.3 INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE COLLEGIATE RANGE AND LAKE COUNTY REGION. THE SNOW WILL TEND TO BE FLUFFY WITH THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE NATURE. GRAND JUNCTION HAS INDICATED THEY WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. I WILL ALSO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT OF SNOW WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED THIS EVENING FOR PEOPLE TRAVELING OVER THE WEEKEND. I ADDED SCATTERED POPS TO THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS AS THE INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...EVEN IN THE LESS OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVER THE PLAINS...CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY IN DOWNSLOPE. THE MESOETA SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON THE PLAINS...AS SEEN BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS. I PUT IN 20 POPS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR MAX TEMPS...THE ETA GUIDANCE IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE ETA GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM...WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL. I WENT WITH ROUGHLY HALF TO TWO THIRDS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ETA AND OTHER GUIDANCE. LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SAT NIGHT THROUGH FRI) AMAZINGLY...MODELS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS ARE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM TODAY...THOUGH IM NOT SURE IF THIS IS REASSURING OR DISCONCERTING. MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT INITIAL COLD SURGE SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND MAY MIX OUT ALONG THE ERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE SECONDARY SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY PUTS ALL OF THE EAST IN THE COLD AIR. FARTHER OUT...00Z GFS MAINTAINS ITS AGREEMENT WITH MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICTING A DEEP WRN U.S. TROUGH...THOUGH ALL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FEATURES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...WHICH ADDS IN EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMP AND PRECIP DETAILS. WX FOR TUE THROUGH FRI WILL CERTAINLY BE UNSETTLED...THOUGH DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY. SAT NIGHT...INITIAL S/W TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SLIDING FROM SERN CO INTO OKLAHOMA. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP ON BOTH THE ETA AND GFS APPEARS TO BE NORTHEAST OF SRN CO...WITH SFC THROUGH 700 MB WINDS TOO NWRLY FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW -SHSN ACROSS THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS. CURRENT GRIDS WITH LOW CHC POPS LOOK OK. SUN...COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS CO WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. ALL AREAS WILL CERTAINLY SEE COLDER MAX TEMPS...BUT APPEARS REAL ARCTIC COLD WILL STILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH. BOTH ETA AND GFS SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE S-SW OVER THE ERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...AND BOTH SUGGEST STRATUS DURING THE DAY MAY STAY NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING A LITTLE. WILL THUS CHANGE SUNDAY GRIDS TO WARM UP MAX TEMPS OVER THE EAST (THOUGH STILL 15 DEGF COLDER THAN SAT). WILL ALSO DECREASE CLOUD COVER AND ELIMINATE SNOW CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY. SUN NIGHT/MON...REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH INCREASING ERLY UPSLOPE. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS COME BACK QUICKLY SUN EVENING...WITH LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT OVER THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS AS COLD AIR MASS DEEPENS. MON WILL BE CLOUDY/COLD WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...CURRENT GRIDS COVER THIS SCENARIO WELL. DOUBT PRECIP WILL BE VERY HEAVY AS UPPER DYNAMICS ARE LACKING AND UPSLOPE NEVER DEEPENS ABOVE 750 MB...THOUGH PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG ERN MTN SLOPES. TUE-FRI...NORTHWARD SHIFT OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ON LATEST MODEL RUNS ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY TO AN ALREADY FUZZY EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL APPEARS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE A PROLONGED SNOW EVENT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST...QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY WILL LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ERODE...AND WHERE WILL SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKE PLACE OVER THE PLAINS WED. THE GFS TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST THE COLD AIR MASS OVER THE EAST WILL ERODE QUICKLY TUE WITH DOWNSLOPE SWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SFC LOW THEN SPINS UP OVER SERN CO WED...KEEPING BEST LIFT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF SRN CO. AT THIS POINT...WONT CHANGE CURRENT FCST GRIDS...WHICH FOLLOW THE COLDER/WETTER UKMET SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WILL THUS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LIMITED TO THE MTNS ON TUE...SPREADING TO ALL AREAS WED/THU. FOR FRI...KEPT PRECIP CHANCES GOING IN THE MTNS DUE TO CONTINUED PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S...WHILE PLAINS MAY DRY WITH WRLY FLOW. KEPT MAX TEMPS BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE ENTIRE TUE-FRI PERIOD. --PETERSEN .PUB...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (ZONES 058>061).
COZ058>089-093>099-221400- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 650 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A PROBABILITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THERE COULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...AS WELL. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON ACTUAL SNOWFALL TOTALS THIS FAR OUT...BUT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COLORADO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUB. KC/METZE
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, February 2003
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5342536, 5342537.