Wildfire in California, August 17, 2003

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
206 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY
AND REDEVELOP TO THE EAST...OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...THEN SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS.

.DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY BETTER ONSHORE GRADIENTS TODAY HELPED TO KEEP
COASTAL AREAS A BIT COOLER IN GENERAL THAN YESTERDAY WHILE DRYING
INLAND HELPED TO BUMP TEMPS HIGHER THERE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG MADE IT ALL THE WAY INTO A FEW MESA AREAS THIS AM BUT IT
WAS VERY PATCHY. CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CREST OF THE MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW UPPER HIGH PEAKING OVER CA TONIGHT AND MON...FOLLOWED BY
A SHIFT EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENING OVER NM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LOW DROPS S ALONG THE COAST AND BECOMES
CUT OFF W OF SFO. THIS SETS UP AN UPPER LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO
S...SOMEWHERE OVER SOCAL AND A MONSOONAL MOISTURE GRADIENT.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS...WE COULD
STAY STABLE AND DRY...OR SEE A RETURN OF MONSOON FLOW. THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WILL ASSUME THAT THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE AND WE GET IN THE S
FLOW HERE...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE US VULNERABLE FOR MTN AND
DESERT STORMS BY MID WEEK. TUE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN BUT LOOKS
MARGINAL THEREFOR 10 PERCENT POPS ARE INDICATED BUT NO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE ZONES UNTIL WED. AT THE COAST...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN VERY SHALLOW MON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
THE WARMEST DAY...FOLLOWED BY BETTER ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND A
POSSIBLE EDDY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TUE AND WED. ALSO AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAX
TEMPS ALL AREAS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MRF
CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME DRYING HERE BUT THE HIGH REMAINS STRONG
OTHERWISE FOR WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. THE CUT OFF TO THE WEST SHOULD
GET REABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES AND WILL BE THE WILD CARD. IF WE
CAN GET ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW AS IT COMES ONSHORE...THE MONSOON
THREAT WILL BE CHOKED OFF ONCE AGAIN. BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE RUNS
TO SEE HOW THIS IS HANDLED BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WOULD BET ON
THE HIGH KEEPING THE LOW ON A TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH.

SAN...NONE.

CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-181300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
600 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.