Hail in Wisconsin, August 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2002

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY NEAR TERM POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
TONIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CLASSIC BATTLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL CAP WITH 700
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10 AND 13 DEGREES C CURRENTLY
PREVENTING ONSET OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER CWA...VERSUS VERY MOIST AND
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -10 TO -14 IN THE LOWER
LAYERS. ETA/AVN/RUC/NGM PROGS COLLAPSE CAP AT DIFFERENT RATES THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS CRITICAL WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. EDGE
OF CAP APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WHERE FIRST
INDICATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SHOW UP. WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST MINUTE WITH
ZONES TO DETERMINE WHETHER TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES.

IN THE FAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER REGION AS PER ALL PROGS
WITH QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME TIMING DISAGREEMENT OF
PROGS WITH RETURN OF CONVECTION WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND COINCIDING WITH UPPER ENGERY. WILL OPT TO MENTION
CONVECTION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AT EARLIEST...BUT FEEL SUNDAY BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER RIDGE STILL BUILDING OVER REGION
WITH TIME SO WILL BUMP UP GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LATE IN FORECAST
PERIOD.

.MKX...NONE.

ZAJDEL