Damaging Wind in Virginia, May 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2002

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CINCINNATI OH
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TN. A LINE OF CONVECTION...CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AIRMASS HAS LIKELY STABILIZED ENOUGH FROM THE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PROGGED FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE PREVIOUS DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONE. THIS COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND DEEP SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...AND THEN RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...NGM AND AVN NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...TONIGHTS
NUMBERS SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES...AND THINK THAT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO IS BEST.

THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY AND FOR COORDINATION ONLY:

CHA   62  79  60  83 /  50  10  10  40
TYS   60  76  56  80 /  50  10  10  40
TRI   55  75  51  78 /  50  10  10  40
OQT   59  76  55  80 /  50  10  10  40

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DMG

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-092000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 9 2002

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL 4 PM...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EASTERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 5 PM EDT (4 PM CDT)...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS ALREADY FORMED IN THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH...POSITIONED FROM THE
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING...AND
WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HEAT.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN EASTERN TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

THESE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...BUT IN THIS REGION...THERE IS BETTER ORGANIZATION FOR
ROTATING STORMS ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RESIDENTS ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ARE ADVISED TO STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATION...FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DM