Damaging Winds in Virginia, March 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
300 PM EST TUE MAR 26 2002

KEEPING AN EYE ON AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING NEWD FM NE NC INTO SE
VA. STORMS ARE PULSING BUT NOT REACHING SVR LIMITS YET. ALSO A
THREAT FOR AN ISOLD SVR TS THIS EVE WITH MAIN BRUNT OF CNVTN ASSOCD
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS AKQ FA BTWN 06-12Z
TNGT. WL KEEP LIKELY POPS WITH CHC TS MOST AREAS AS LOW LVL WEDGE
HAS BKN ALL BUT FAR NW COUNTIES.

CHC OF LINGERING SHWR FAR SE FA TMRW MORN AS SFC WAVE DEVELOPMNT
SLOWS FRONTAL PROGRESS. SHUD CLR OUT DUR AM HOURS BUT MID LVL FLOW
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC (VS ZONAL) AND CUD POP SM SC DUR AFTN WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE. TEMPS WL RISE TO NR CLIMO NORMS PENDING
ARRIVAL OF BTR 8H CAA DUR LT AFTN/EVE.

MID LVL FLOW BCMG MR ZONAL WED NIGHT/THU AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THEN
SLIPS OFFSHORE BY LATE THU. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR INLAND
AREAS LATE WED NIGHT AND SOME AREAS BRIEFLY BLO FREEZING BUT PROB
NOT PROLONGED ENUF (OR COLD ENUF) FOR FREEZE WARNING.

EXNTDD: BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYS PASSES
TO N LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT. NEXT BEST CHC PCPN APPEARS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WAA/MOISTURE FM SW OVERRIDES COOL
WEDGE E OF MTNS. WL INTRODUCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THRU MON.

FCSTID = 20

PRELIM CCF:
SBY   46  57  30  57 /  70  10   0   0
OXB   49  55  32  53 /  70  10   0   0
ECG   53  62  34  60 /  70  10   0   0
ORF   51  59  35  59 /  70  10   0   0
PHF   47  60  32  63 /  60  10   0   0
AKQ   47  60  32  64 /  60  10   0   0
RIC   45  59  31  63 /  60  10   0   0
FVX   42  58  31  64 /  60  10   0   0

.AKQ...
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FENWICK ISLAND TO CHINCOTEAGUE.
NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NC/VA BORDER CURRITUCK BCH LIGHT
VA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CHINCOTEAGUE TO NC/VA BORDER AND CHES BAY
     S OF SMITH POINT.

CULLEN