Damaging Wind in Virginia, August 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2002

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION
930 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2002

CANT SEEM TO HAVE AN EVENING WITHOUT A STORM OR TWO...AND HAVE SEEN
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP.  INTENSE AFTERNOON HEATING...
TERRAIN AND SOME SMALL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE LED TO SEVERAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS SINCE MID EVENING.  HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE USED FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  DOWNED TREES AND QUARTER SIZED
HAIL HAVE OCCURRED BENEATH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

I WILL LOOK THINGS OVER AND UPDATE ZONES...ONCE THE REMAINING STORMS
DISSIPATE...AND MAY NEED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO ZONE GROUPS WHERE
CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED.

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

TG
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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
250 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2002

LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS PRODUCING TYPICAL
HOT...HAZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EARLY AUGUST.  ONLY LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WITH BE LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES...SO
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
FOR FRIDAY.

ISOLATED STORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY...BUT LIMITED
COVERAGE EXPECTED...SO WILL KEEP AREA DRY FOR SATURDAY.

WILL TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE HOTTER MOS VALUES

FCSTID =
CHA   71  95  71  94 /   0  10  10  10
TYS   70  94  70  94 /   0  10  10  10
TRI   64  91  65  91 /   0  10  10  10
OQT   68  94  68  94 /   0  10  10  10

DH

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MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
940 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2002

LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FAR EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE.  PER SPC DISC...A WEAK WAVE IS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS VA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVEG. SOME LIFT EVIDENT WITH THIS WAVE WITH
THE AVN THE STRONGEST.  AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG AND LIS BETWEEN -5 AND -7.

BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROGGED TO MOISTEN DURING THE DAY WITH PWS
INCREASING FROM 1.24 TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES AND K INDICES IN THE
UPPER 30S BY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID-LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION WITH INVERTED-V SIGNATURE...SO THERE IS A DAMAGING
MICROBURST POTENTIAL.

WILL CALL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE VALLEY. WILL CHANGE SKY COVER FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.  WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

DH

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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
330 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2002

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA FROM THE NORTH. UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVER
AREA FROM WEST. AS LOWER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN...WEAK CONVERGENCE
WORKS SOUTHWARD DOWN EAST SIDE OF APPALACHIANS. WITH THE AID OF
UPSLOPE FLOW SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MNTS OF TN/NC NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE MAX TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB. UPR RIDGE OVR
NATIONS HEARTLAND HOLD STRONG FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHERN
WESTERLIES AND SOUTHERN EASTERLIES NOT LIKELY TO PENETRATE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION THESE PARTS. TROPICAL
SEASON POISED TO START CRANKING.

CHA AA 095/071 095/071 094 17111
TYS AA 093/071 093/069 094 17111
TRI AA 091/067 092/065 090 17011
OQT AA 092/069 093/068 094 17111=

SON
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