Hail and Damaging Wind in Utah, September 7, 2002

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1000 AM MDT SAT SEP 7 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY.  DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE SPREADING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...FLASH
FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH THE HEAVIER CELLS AND WATCH IS
APPROPRIATE. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT BUT MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH TODAY...
BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GET MOST LOCATIONS WET AT
LEAST ONCE TODAY. THE WAVE WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE NORTH TONIGHT
AND WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD RESULT. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS LYING ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF UT IS FORECAST
TO SLIP SOUTH OF SLC DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL JUST ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. MEANWHILE...RAIN OVER THE SOUTH WILL
TAPER OFF.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS BRING THE REMNANTS OF THE WEST COAST TROF INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED OR BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH PROVIDING A
FOCUS. CURRENT PACKAGE COVERS ALL THIS ADEQUATELY AND NO UPDATES
PLANNED.

SLC 765  CDC 766  WILENSKY

.SLC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL UT TODAY.