Flash Flooding in Texas, September 8, 2002

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED CCF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
335 AM CDT SUN SEP 8 2002

A STATIONARY RIDGE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF TEXAS WILL KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF FAY ANCHORED OVER THE CWA. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
SHOWS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL STALL OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...PLACING THE COASTAL BEND IN A REGION OF STRONG DEEP
CONVERGENCE...BETWEEN THE SWLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF FAY AND
MODERATE SELY WINDS FROM THE GULF WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
ERRUPTED THIS MORNING IN THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE AIDED BY THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 35-40KT UPPER JET...AND 30 KT SLY LOW LVL JET.
SEVERAL STORMS WERE SHOWING ROTATION IN MOD-STG LOW LVL SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
FUNNELS TODAY. THIS PATTERN SHOWS LTL CHANGE THROUGH MON NGT. PWATS
WILL STEADILY RISE TO 2.50 INCHES THROUGH MON NGT AS THE SELY LOW
LVL FLOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF. THUS
CONSIDERING ALL FACTORS WILL EXPAND THE FFA TO COVER ALL OF OUR NRN
COUNTIES FROM LASALLE TO CALHOUN.

EXTENDED...THE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT TUE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE STATE AND A TROF DEVELOPS ON THE EAST
COAST. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUE WHICH
SHOULD DRY US OUT. A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ON SAT. THE EXTENDED FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MARINE...FAY WL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE FCST
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE.  PERIODIC CONVECTION WL DEVELOP ON ITS ERN
PERIPHERY THROUGH MON AND AFFECT THE WATERS.  TNT APPEARS TO BE THE
BEST CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH ALL THE MODELS ADVERTISING SOME DECENT
OMEGA/UPR DIV/MOISTURE CONV FIELDS.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN ON MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A S/WV MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
AND HELPS TO DRIVE A WK FNTL BOUNDARY SWD.  THE REMNANTS OF FAY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED SWD INTO MEXICO BY MIDWEEK.  DRIER AIR
WL SLOLWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND FURTHER AID IN DIMINISHING
RAIN CHANCES.  WL GO WITH SCEC FOR TDA GIVEN THE LATEST OBS.  NO
FLAGS ARE EXPECTED.

CRP TT 090/078 090/078 088 5864
VCT TT 087/074 086/073 087 7+84
LRD TT 087/075 087/075 086 5556

.CRP...FFA TXZ229>234-244>247.

75/JM..SYN
80/MB..MESO/MARINE

TXZ231>234-242>247-081445-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 AM CDT SUN SEP 8 2002

...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA THIS MORNING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY.  BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE HAVE BEEN MANY
REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FROM SHERIFF DEPUTIES IN LIVE OAK AND BEE
COUNTIES. THE STORMS WHICH PRODUCED THE FUNNELS WILL BE MOVING INTO
GOLIAD AND VICTORIA COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION...TAKE SHELTER IN
THE CENTER OF YOUR HOME...USUALLY IN A CLOSET OR UNDER A WORKBENCH.

...STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION...