Hail in Texas, May 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WEAKLY INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. LOOKING AT THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS UP NORTH...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. A S/WV MOVING TO OUR NORTH LATE TOMORROW IS
EXPECTED TO GIVE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE BIT OF A PUSH...MOVING IT
PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE DIFFUSE
BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE. THE ETA FORECASTS A WEAK
SFC LOW TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND WITH A VERY WARM
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BELIEVE TOMORROW MAY BE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN THIS SET OF ZONES...AS IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE THREAT. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE TAKING THE STORM TRACK BACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN
CHANCES AFTER SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AROUND THE AREA. THE ETA GENERALLY HAD THE
WARMEST TEMPS...AS IT IS NOT BRINGING THE BOUNDARY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE OTHER MODELS. BELIEVE THE ETA IS PROBABLY TOO WARM IN MANY
PLACES...SO WE GENERALLY HELD BELOW IT...AND CLOSER TO THE FWC. THE
MAV LOOKS TOO COOL GENERALLY.

FCSTID = 5
SHV   67  80  66  86 /  30  40   0   0
MLU   68  79  69  84 /  20  40   0   0
TXK   62  78  62  85 /  40  40   0   0
TYR   65  79  64  87 /  30  40   0  30
LFK   70  86  71  88 /  20  20   0  30

.SHV...NONE.