Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, March 19, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
945 AM CST TUE MAR 19 2002

ALTHOUGH SPRING OFFICIALLY BEGINS TOMARROW MARCH 20TH THIS YEAR
AT 116 PM CST...STORMY SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  1ST WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEMS CAME ACROSS YESTERDAY EVENING TO PART OF LAST
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 2ND WAVE THIS MORNING VCNTY OF N VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD.  WEST OF ELP AND CUU EVOLVING CLOUDS
PAINTS VIVID LOCATION OF MAIN UPPER AIR LOW FCST TO TRACK ACROSS AND
TO THE NORTH OF S CNTL TX LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED.  STRONG LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS MID TO LATE MARCH 2002 SYSTEM BODES VERY
WELL FOR RAIN AND ALSO THE POSSIBLITY OF STORMY CONDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  THE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS PATH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT IS SIMILIAR TO THE RAIN EVENTS OF
THE FALL 2001...ALTHOUGH THE INGREDIANTS THAT COME TOGETHER TODAY
WILL REFLECT A UNIQUENESS IN CHAOS TO MARCH 19 AND EARLY MARCH
20...2002.  DRYLINE THIS MRNG BETWEEN DRYDEN AND MARFA...WITH COOLER
PACIFIC AIR WEST OF ELP AND CUU...THEN TO THE NORTH COMING ACORSS
THE TX PANHANDLE AND NM IS MODIFIED CONTINENTAL COOL AIR MOVING
SOUTH.  ACROSS S CNTL TX CONTD SELY WINDS HAVE PUMPED ENOUGH LOW LVL
MSTR INTO LOW PRES SYS TO THE WEST AND SFC WINDS APPEAR TO BE MORE
ISOLOBARIC AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  ALL INGREDIANTS THAT FAVOR
VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TODAY...WITH RISK OF STORMY WEATHER.
WL CONT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS IN FORECASTS.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE AND
FOR THURSDAY A CLEAR DAY.  BY FRIDAY THE RETURN FLOW PATTERN BEGINS
AGAIN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT.  ANOTHER
RAIN MAKING S/W TROF PASSES OVER AREA SUNDAY IN A PATTERN SIMILIAR
TO SUNDAY MARCH 10TH...THEREFORE SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY CLODY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.  MEDIUM RANGE DATA FOR NEXT WEEK BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SOME FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS...THAT TRIED TO SHOW COOLER AIR
SPILLING ACROSS AREA NEXT WEEK.  THIS COULD STILL HAPPEN...HOWEVER
STORMY NATURE OF WESTERLIES MAY CUTOFF SOME OF THE COOL AIRS
MOVEMENT SOUTH...AND BRING CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREA SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK.  WILL CONT TO LOOK FOR A TREND...HOWEVER STORMY CHAOS OF EARLY
SPRING WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR TRENDLESS PATTERNS.
IN THE MEANTIME A RAIN EVENT AND STORMY AT TIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 12 HOURS
OF SUNSHINE THURSAY OR CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OF POSSIBLE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AUS 078/054/067/040/070 5+200
SAT 081/052/075/046/077 5+-00
DRT 080/056/070/044/073 77100

.EWX...NONE.

08/19

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-192200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
100 PM CST TUE MAR 19 2002

...DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
   COUNTRY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS A
100 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY SEVERE.

AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING  WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY.

FOR INFORMATION ON WEATHER THREATS IN SURROUNDING AREAS...PLEASE
REFER TO OUTLOOKS FROM OFFICES IN MIDLAND/ODESSA...SAN ANGELO...
FORT WORTH...HOUSTON/GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI.