Damaging Wind in Texas, March 19, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 AM CST TUE MAR 19 2002

WELL HERE WE GO AGAIN. THE NEARLY STATIONARY/WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TAKING UP RESIDENCE FOR A WHILE LONGER. AT 200 AM THIS
MORNING THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SE AR ACROSS NW LA...NE TX AND
THEN ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS INTO LOW PRESSURE NEAR KELP. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S WHILE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY VALUES DIP INTO THE MID 50S. JUST RECENTLY NEW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT HAD OCCURRED OVER NE TX AND SW AR NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FEATURE WHILE OTHER ACTIVITY CONTINUED ACROSS SE OK AND W AR.
RECENT DEVELOPMENT ALSO WAS INDICATED ON OTHER RADARS UPSTREAM ACROSS
CENTRAL TX NEAR KACT. I WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE
NORTH WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INCREASE CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TX AD MOVE EAST ALONG THE SURFACE  BOUNDARY.
BY WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES MOST ALL LOCATIONS AND END FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AT THE MODEL DATA THE AVN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME INDICATED IT
WAS THE SLOWER OF THE RUNS WITH THE NGM THE FASTEST...NOW
THIS LATEST RUN SHOWED JUST THE OPPOSITE...THE NGM THE SLOWER WITH
THE AVN THE FASTEST. WITH THE LOW MOVING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO
WILL TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM WHICH WOULD MEAN
THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT
FOR THE NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN
OVER REMAINING SECTIONS OF THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH AND MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST AND MOVES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS FORECAST
AREA BECOMES SITUATED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET ALONG WITH
FRONTAL LIFT AND HIGH GULF MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHORE AS MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT COULD CAUSE A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE BY 10 OR MORE DEGREES.

06

PRELIMS...SUBJECT TO CHANGE

SHV 080/063/073/052/070 3774
MLU 082/064/074/054/070 2476
TXK 071/059/066/048/068 8883
TYR 077/063/069/050/069 6763
LFK 082/065/074/052/072 3773

.SHV...NONE.