Flood in Texas, July 4 to 12, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
835 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2002

FOR THE MOMENT ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEAR SAT TO LLANO WITH ALL
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED.  CONTG TO WATCH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
TO THE SOUTH WHICH HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF BUILDING TOWARDS THE W AND NW
WHERE STG THETA-E RDG INDICATED BY LAPS AND MID LEVEL MCV MOVG SWD
DOWN THE RIO GRANDE.  LATEST RUC RUNS CONTS TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN FROM BEXAR COUNTY WWD 06Z/09Z...WHILE 18Z MESO-ETA AND AVN
SHOWING LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST OF SAT.  HOWEVER WITH PWSS NEAR
2 INCHES...AND PAST HISTORY OF PREVIOUS NIGHTS WILL CONT TO LEAN
TOWARD WETTER SOLN WITH PSBL TRAINING STORMS MOVING/BUILDING NWD
INTO THE SRN/S CNTRL CWA OVERNIGHT.  CONTG FFA AS IS WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES ON UPDATE.  01/03/10/09/23

PREVIOUS DISC...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS NUMEROUS STREAMS AND RIVERS
REMAIN IN FLOOD.  ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR
EL INDIO TO ABILENE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN LOCATION EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN FIRED
IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THANKS TO DAYTIME HEATING.  THESE STORMS
WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND TRAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM HARPER TO SABINAL AND
COTULLA.

THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS FCST BY THE
MESOETA TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  THE RESULT WILL
BE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.
MODELS STILL TRY TO DRIFT THIS DISTURBANCE WESTWARD BUT THIS IS HAS
NOT OCCURRED DUE TO THE TRAPPING UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  IT IS
MORE LIKELY THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND RAIN
ITSELF OUT.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE EXTENDED MODELS/FCST LOOKS WET.  THE MRF/AVN
SOLUTIONS TRY TO BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING STATIONARY.

.EWX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
       AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...GENERALLY WEST OF THE
       I-35 CORRIDOR.