Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, December 23, 2002

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
LOW OVER WEST TEXAS HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE IN THE PAST 3 HOURS AND
WINDS ARE STILL OUT OF THE SOUTH. ORIGINAL THINKING WAS THAT WINDS
WOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE BY DRYING THINGS OUT AND
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
AT MID AFTERNOON STILL RANGED FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
LOWER 70S EAST WITH LIS OF -16 PER MSAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS
THE TAIL OF THE VORT MAX MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST HAVE TAPERED OFF.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHEN SECOND PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PASSING JET STREAK (00Z-06Z)
WILL PROVIDE GOOD LIFT/MOISTURE STILL ABUNDANT. AIRMASS WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHEAR
PROFILES BY THIS EVENING NOT AS FAVORABLE AS EARLY THIS
MORNING...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR VERY LIMITED BUT GOOD SPEED SHEAR STILL
NOTED THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. LOW WET BULB ZEROS ACROSS THE REGION
SO HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME STRONG WINDS.

WILL KEEP POPS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AM. WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS FOR
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. BY 06Z IT APPEARS THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
OVER AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAYS. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH EXITING
UPPER JETS SO IT WILL BE WINDY TOMORROW. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON CHRISTMAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BLEND OF MAV/ETA GUIDANCE. READINGS ON CHRISTMAS WILL BE
IN THE 30S.

EXTENDED...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. IT WILL BE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH TEXAS TO EAST MEXICO. MOST OF THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA....SO
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

MARINE...MARINE...WILL INITIALIZE THE FORECAST WITH SCA AREAWIDE DUE
TO FRONT ENTERING THE WATERS AROUND 6Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN
ITS WAKE.  WILL CARRY A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WITH FROPA BUT THINK MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF PT ARANSAS
LINE. SCAS WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WEAK
RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE STATE ON THURSDAY.
QUICK TURN AROUND TO ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT.  NO PRECIP
FCST AFTER TUE AM.

PRELIM NUMS...
CRP NU 54/63 35/57 38 3-00
VCT NU 50/59 31/55 35 5200
LRD NU 51/63 38/60 40 2000

.CRP...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM CST FOR THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND HELP TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  WARM MOIST AIR WAS
RACING NORTHWARD INTO THIS LOW CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
OVER SOUTH TEXAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A LAREDO TO VICTORIA LINE.  THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.  STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.  AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND EFFECT THE AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SAN ANTONIO TO
KINGSVILLE LINE.  ONCE AGAIN...STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. BUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND THURSDAY LIGHT WINDS AND
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR A MORE SEASONAL HOLIDAY. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
355 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL 800 PM CST MONDAY EVENING. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
COUNTIES OF BEE...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...VICTORIA
AND WEBB. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE BEEVILLE...COTULLA...
ENCINAL...GEORGE WEST...GOLIAD...LAREDO...SKIDMORE...THREE RIVERS...
TILDEN AND VICTORIA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF A DIME
OR LARGER...STRONG WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND EVEN TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE
GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER TRY TO OUTRUN
SEVERE WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP