Hail in Texas, December 23, 2002

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
315 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

RECEIVED REPORT OF 20 MINUTES OF PEA SIZE HAIL IN ROCHELLE. WITH
RADAR INDICATING A FEW STRONGER STORMS STILL LINGERING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...EXPECT TO UPDATE LATER
THIS EVENING TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY SEVERE STORMS.

24

BELOW IS MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
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THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS IN
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT
WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A SHORTWAVE NEARING FAR WEST
TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND AT 1 PM.  SKIES CLEARED TEMPORARILY IN
JUNCTION AT NOON TO ALLOW THE TEMPERATURE TO SHOOT TO 70
DEGREES...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH JUNCTION
AROUND 1230 PM AND TEMPERATURES FELL BACK TO 61 DEGREES. THE
INFRARED SHOWED THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST SAN SABA COUNTY TO SOUTHERN
KIMBLE COUNTY...PUSHING SOUTHEAST.

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO BIGGEST WEATHER MAKERS.
THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN SOUTHEASTERN SECTION THIS EVENING. WITH FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST HOWEVER...CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. DAY
ONE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A MODERATE RISK OF STORM EAST OF A
JUNCTION TO SAN SABA LINE.

THE SECOND WEATHER MAKER...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE BIG BEND...WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE N EDWARDS PLATEAU...CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG
COUNTRY TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE...THOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE 1 OR 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AVN MODEL INDICATED THE 540
THICKNESS LINE TO FALL ALONG INTERSTATE 20 AT 06Z (MIDNIGHT) AND
SOUTH TO A OZONA TO BROWNWOOD LINE AT 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED
A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS THE ABILENE AND INTERSTATE 20 AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. MAIN PROBLEM WITH ALL OF THIS? GETTING MEASURABLE SNOW
AMOUNTS MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS
MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO PLACES
RECEIVING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH.

AVN SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 3
AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS MORE SHALLOW AT THIS
TIME...SO THINK FLURRIES MORE LIKELY OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG
COUNTRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...WITH SKIES CLEARING.
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE REGION.

CHRISTMAS...JUST PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING WITH THE
SUN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE SKIES TO CLOUD UP OVER THE BIG COUNTRY.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FLURRY OR TWO BUT WONT MENTION IT THE ZONES.

THURSDAY INTO MONDAY....WARMING TREND EXTENDS THROUGH SATURDAY. MAY
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING WITH APPROACH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
SUNDAY...AND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE FRONT
LOOKS DRY.

ABI 029/036/023/048 6200
SJT 032/040/025/052 6200
JCT 035/042/024/053 4200

.SJT...NONE.

04

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-242000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
215 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM IS IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS ABOUT ALL THAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  WHILE LIMITED ON MOISTURE THERE MAY BE A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OF FLURRIES ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WE WILL SEE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.