Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, April 7 to 8, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
110 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002

...PUBLIC DISCUSSION
WE HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS AND THE ZONES.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT IS WITHIN THE REDEFINED MODERATE RISK...INCLUDING
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A JACSKBORO...WEATHERFORD...MERIDIAN...
COPPERAS COVE LINE.  WE HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE
ZONES FOR THIS GENERAL AREA.  SOME OF THESE TORNADOES COULD BE QUITE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THIS DOES NOT
PRECLUDE CHANCES FOR TORNADOES FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT FROM GENERALLY THE WACO AND TEMPLE AREAS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT...EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...MAY
WELL BECOME BOW ECHOES AND SEVERE WIND/HAIL STORMS.  THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

26

...AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LATEST OBS FROM DALLAS AREA AIRPORTS INDICATE THAT VISIBILITIES HAVE
DROPPED TO 1-2 SM AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN THE
COOL AIRMASS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  EXPECT LOW VISIBILITIES AND
OVC AT 005-010 TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVES
NORTHEAST.  WILL CARRY TSRA IN THE TAFS FROM 07/20Z THROUGH 08/09Z.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSE
AT 10-20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

65/DD

.FWD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES
TXZ091>095...TXZ102>107...TXZ117>123...TXZ131>135...TXZ144>148...TXZ1
57>162...TXZ174>175.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-072100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1209 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JACKSBORO...TO WEATHERFORD
...MERIDIAN...AND COPPERAS COVE.  THIS INCLUDES BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS...STEPHENVILLE...HAMILTON...COMACNHE... EASTLAND
...GOLDTHWAITE..AND LAMPASAS.

FURTHER EAST...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A FEW OF THE TORNADOES COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.  THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

BY MID-EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST...AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.  MOST OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...THUS NOT AS LIKELY TO
BE TORNADIC.  HOWEVER...THEY COULD INCLUDE BOW ECHO STORMS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

SPOTTERS WILL BE ACTIVATED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON AS
STORMS DEVELOP.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MORE LIKELY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AFTER DARK.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE...TO WEATHERFORD...AND GATESVILLE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.  NORTH TEXAS RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS SHOULD
LISTEN TO TV...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.