Damaging Wind in Tennessee, August 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2002

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
310 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2002

MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT AN UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN
ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY OVER THE KY/TN REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS
SUCH THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH A GRADUAL GRADATION TO LOWER POPS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK BUT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT IN A MOIST
REGIME AS ITS LEGACY.

MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SEASONAL TEMPS ARE ALSO IN STORE AS A
RESULT OF MORE CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW. GUIDANCE TEMPS GENERALLY AGREE AND APPEAR REASONABLE.
FOLLOWED THOSE NUMBERS CLOSELY FOR THE MOST PART.

PRELIMINARY TEMPS AND POPS FOLLOW FOR COORDINATION:

CHA   89  69  88  68 /  40  30  40  30
TYS   85  66  84  65 /  50  40  50  40
TRI   79  63  79  62 /  70  50  60  50
OQT   85  65  84  65 /  40  30  50  40

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

LCM

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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
845 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002

ONGOING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT AND WITH LIS FORECAST
TO STAY NEGATIVE ALL NIGHT AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO WORK
FROM REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  WITH THIS IN
MIND...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL THIS RUN.  UPPER LOW TO PARK OVER
THE REGION...KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY WEAK IMPULSES THAT MAY ENHANCE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.  PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TOMORROW. OTHERWISE CHANCE
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE OVERALL AND LOOK REASONABLE FOR LOWS.  WILL
GENERALLY USE A BLEND FOR HIGHS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW:
CHA   70  86  68  85 /  40  50  30  30
TYS   70  84  68  82 /  50  60  40  40
TRI   66  80  65  79 /  60  60  50  50
OQT   68  83  67  84 /  50  60  40  40

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

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MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
915 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL ZONES THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  A QUICK LOOK AT THE MODELS
INDICATES BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT NORTH TODAY.  JUST
SENT QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ALL ZONES.  ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS IN
CENTRAL VALLEY ZONES.