Damaging Wind in Tennessee, August 25, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL THIS RUN.  UPPER LOW TO PARK OVER
THE REGION...KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY WEAK IMPULSES THAT MAY ENHANCE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.  PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TOMORROW. OTHERWISE CHANCE
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE OVERALL AND LOOK REASONABLE FOR LOWS.  WILL
GENERALLY USE A BLEND FOR HIGHS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW:
CHA   70  86  68  85 /  40  50  30  30
TYS   70  84  68  82 /  50  60  40  40
TRI   66  80  65  79 /  60  60  50  50
OQT   68  83  67  84 /  50  60  40  40

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

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MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
915 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL ZONES THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  A QUICK LOOK AT THE MODELS
INDICATES BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT NORTH TODAY.  JUST
SENT QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ALL ZONES.  ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS IN
CENTRAL VALLEY ZONES.

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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
310 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002

MAIN ISSUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE NEAR-TERM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR FEATURES. UPPER
LOW IS STILL PROJECTED TO DEVELOP BY 00Z MONDAY AND DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. A SERIES OF RELATIVELY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE. ETA TIME HEIGHT DEPICTS
A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE ALONG WITH EPISODIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. AVN PLACES THE BEST
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH IT TOO SHOWS EPISODIC LIFT
EVENTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AT THIS TIME...TEND TO FAVOR AVN
SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW MAKES ANY SPECIFIC
SOLUTION PROBLEMATIC.

GENERALLY FAVOR MARGINALLY WARMER NGM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS. SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMP REGIME IS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AT ANY RATE.

PRELIMINARY TEMPS AND POPS FOLLOW FOR COORDINATION:

CHA   89  72  87  68 /  40  30  40  30
TYS   87  70  83  66 /  40  30  40  40
TRI   84  65  79  62 /  30  40  50  40
OQT   87  70  83  66 /  40  30  40  40

LCM

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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
915 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.  AVN MODEL SHOWS CURRENT
PRECIP OVER MIDDLE AND WEST TENNESSEE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT CHANCE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.

NO OTHER CHANGES.

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-260400-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...

AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS...
ALONG WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS IS STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE.  HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.  HOURLY RAINFALL FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD REACH UP TO 2 INCHES...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
PONDING OF LOW LYING AREAS...STREET FLOODING...AND RAPID STREAM
RISES.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.  EVERYONE SHOULD KEEP AN
EYE TO THE SKY AND WATCH OUT FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
RESIDENTS LIVING NEAR STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS.  PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR FAVORITE RADIO AND TV STATIONS
FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SP