Sleet in Pennsylvania, January 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EST WED JAN 9 2002

WARM ADVECTION CLDS ARE INCRSG OVR THE AREA ERY THIS MRNG AND PRECIP
...XPCD TO BE SCT AND LGT...SHUD FOLLOW SUIT FOR MAINLY THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TIMING WUD BE THIS MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN NRN
THIRD...AND MID MRNG INTO ERY AFTN CNTRL ZONES. WITH TEMPS INITIALLY
BLO FRZG SFC AND ALF NRN ZONES WL FOLLOW THE PREV SHIFT AND KEEP HI
CHC FOR SCT FRZG RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE NRN ZONES...WARMING GRDLY
BY LATE MRNG/MIDDAY TO SCT RAIN. S OF ABE WL SAY CHC RAIN LATE MRNG
INTO ERY AFTN...AS WARMING IS WELL UNDERWAY BY MID MRNG. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A BAND OF HIR RH WITH WK
WRMFNT/TROF...BUT ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE SO PREFER 50 POPS
N...SHADING DOWN TO 30 TWD PHL. WITH CHC POPS AT THIS TIME WL NOT
ISSUE AN ADVY BUT RATHER ISSUE A FOLLOW-ON SPL WX STMT INDICATING
SCT AREA OF FRZG/FROZEN THIS MRNG. RE CLDS...SHUD BE MO CLDY N AND
WITH SOME THINNER AREAS IN CLDS OVR CNTRL AND SRN ZONES WL GO PTLY
SUNNY. WAS THINKING THAT NRN ZONES MAY SEE DIMINISHED CLD COVER TNGT
BUT MODELS ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND WL CONT MOCLDY...PTLY CLDY THU.

TEMPS...WITH SNOW COVER AND A PREVALENCE OF CLDS N WL SHADE TEMPS
CLOSER TO MOS. WL GO ABV MOS FOR THU MAXES CNTRL AND S ZONES.

WL ISSUE SCA FOR CSTL WATERS AND DE BAY AS WINDS HAVE INCRSD WITH
TIGHTENING GRADIENT.

FCSTID = 17
MPO   35  29  42  29 /  50   0   0  10
ABE   39  31  46  33 /  40   0   0  10
RDG   41  32  49  35 /  30   0   0  10
PHL   44  34  51  39 /  30   0   0  10
12N   37  31  44  30 /  50   0   0  10
SMQ   42  32  50  37 /  30   0   0  10
TTN   43  32  50  38 /  30   0   0  10
MIV   45  33  51  35 /  20   0   0  10
ACY   47  36  49  39 /  20   0   0  10
ILG   44  33  50  38 /  30   0   0  10
DOV   45  34  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
GED   45  34  52  38 /  20   0   0  10
ESN   46  35  52  38 /  20   0   0  10

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SCA SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE AND DE BAY.

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-091700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SCATTERED LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP THIS MRNG
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
435 AM EST WED JAN 9 2002

...SCATTERED LIGHT SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND EVEN THROUGH LATE MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS. WITH COLD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ANY
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...OR EVEN
FREEZING RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A READING-DOYLESTOWN-FLEMINGTON-
MORRISTOWN LINE. HOWEVER...AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AT
HIGHER LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AS
WELL...ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN BY
LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY...AND MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

IN MOST AREAS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL AS SCATTERED
AND UNORGANIZED. EVEN SO...TRAVELERS SHOULD USE CAUTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND REMEMBER THAT EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN
CAN FORM A DANGEROUS GLAZE OF ICE. ALLOW A LITTLE EXTRA TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION THIS MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TV
FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.