Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, August 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO
500MB SHORTWAVE. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW YORK WSW TO
ABOUT CHICAGO. LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS NW PORTION OF CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS A
THEY MOVE INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR WHERE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE HAS
DEVELOPED. BELIEVE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
LATER OVER SOUTHERN PA AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS THAT AREA COMES
UNDER FAVORABLE REGION OF 75KT JET. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LI VALUES
ABOUT -2 WITH EXPECTED MAX TEMPS IN LOWER 80S. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
FCST TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES SO SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS LIKELY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL POPS 30-40 AND THAT LOOKS GOOD
BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE.

FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT SO WILL END SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY MARGINAL DRYING BEHIND FRONT...CLOUDS
WILL LINGER TIL AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. TOMORROW SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY AS MODELS SHOW GOOD DRYING DURING THE DAY. MONDAY LOOKS
LIKE A FINE DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NY
STATE. STAYED CLOSE TO AVN GUIDANCE FOR SHORT TERM.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST CWA
AS CUTOFF LOW PROGGED TO DRIFT OUR WAY. MRF CONTINUES TO FORECAST
WET WEEK AND THAT WAS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE MINIMAL CHANGES
TO EXTENDED. AREA MAY GET MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL DURING UPCOMING WEEK
IF MRF VERIFIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MRF GUIDANCE FOR EXTENDED.

.CTP...
PA...NONE.

DIRIENZO