Wildfire in Oregon, November 1, 2002

SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
920 PM PST THU OCT 31 2002

...MORE RECORD LOWS ON THE WAY TONIGHT...
...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE 1ST WEEK OF NOVEMBER...

GRADIENT SOUTHEAST WINDS CHANNELED INTO THE LOWER REACHES OF THE BEAR
CREEK VALLEY TODAY AND GUSTED TO 25 MPH AT MEDFORD. THESE WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED INTO THE EVENING BUT HAVE DECREASED AND REVERSED TO
NORTHERLY...INDICATIVE OF THE REVERSE ROTOR-TYPE WIND THAT OCCURS
OFTEN HERE UNDER A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT RIDGE
LEVEL. EXPECT THE WINDS TO PREVIAL LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT A LITTLE
WIND GOES A LONG WAY...AND JUST 2 OR 3 MPH WOULD STAND A GOOD CHANCE
AT KEEPING MEDFORD MIXED ENOUGH TO REMAIN ABOVE TONIGHTS RECORD LOW
OF 22 DEGREES.

THIS EVENINGS MESO-ETA MODEL FORECAST HAS FORECAST THE WINDS IN THE
850-900 MILLIBAR LEVEL (3-5 KFT) TO SUSTAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT A
BRISK 15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MAKES MEDFORDS LOW TEMP
FCST TOUGH DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WIND POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT
AT THE VALLEY FLOOR...SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND VECTOR ALIGNS
NICELY WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE VALLEY. NOT TO MENTION...THERES
CONSIDERABLE DOWNWARD FORCING...THOUGH NOT REPRESENTED ON A SYNOPTIC
SCALE BY THE 700-300 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WHERE IN FACT THE
REVERSE IS TRUE...BUT MORE ON THE MESOSCALE AND REPRESENTED WELL BY
THE MESO-ETAS 850-700 MILLIBAR OMEGA FIELDS WHICH SHOW -3 TO -12
MICROBARS PER SECOND OVER JACKSON COUNTY ALL NIGHT. THE LOCAL
WORKSTATION ETA AGREES. DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING ARE AGAIN SHOWING
DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z MEDFORD SOUNDING
SHOWED THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE COUNTRY...WHICH LENDS A
VOTE TOWARD COOLER OVERNIGHT READINGS. ALL FACTS CONSIDERED...FEEL
THE INVERSION WILL SET UP STRONG BUT LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND THAT
MEDFORD WILL LIKELY BREAK THE RECORD TONIGHT AND WIND UP IN THE UPPER
TEENS AS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
BREEZINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM WARMER.
LAST NIGHTS INVERSION SET UP AROUND 2300...BELOW WHICH THE
TEMPERATURES DIPPED MOSTLY INTO THE TEENS...WHILE ABOVE THE LOWS
REMAINED AROUND 30 WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. I WOULD
EXPECT ANOTHER SIMILAR SCENARIO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE INVERSION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LOWER...SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF ASHLAND...WITH A 15
DEGREE DIFFERENTIAL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH POSSIBLE THERE BY SUNRISE.

AT THE COAST THE OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE STRATUS OUT TO SEA AND
THIS WILL HOLD TRUE AGAIN TONIGHT. EAST WINDS THERE OF 10-20 MPH LAST
NIGHT KEPT THE MIN TEMPS IN CHECK IN THE 35 TO NEAR 40 RANGE AND
EXPECT THIS AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME VALLEYS JUST INLAND...SUCH
AS POWERS...WILL STAY PROTECTED FROM THE WIND AND SHOULD DIP TO NEAR
20 OR SO AGAIN. THE UMPQUA APPEARS ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER SIMILAR NIGHT
TO LAST NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE DETECTED THERE...THOUGH THE
FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE WARMER CONSIDERING THE LOWER INVERSION AND
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIND.

OVER THE CASCADES AND OUT EAST AND THE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING LOWER
TONIGHT BUT THE BNO-LMT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGER AND MOST SITES
ARE REPORTING A LITTLE MORE WIND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE MESO-
ETA SUGGEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR INCREASE. EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND AS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT WITH LAKEVIEW REMAINING 4-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN KLAMATH FALLS DUE TO MORE WIND. 24-HOUR CHANGES
SHOW DEPOINTS OUT EAST RUNNING...AGAIN...5 TO 15 DEGREES DRIER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. DUE TO THE INCREASED WINDS AND DRIER AIR...ITS
TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHO WILL BE COLDER AND WHO WILL BE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...BUT KLAMATH FALLS SHOULD CERTAINLY AGAIN BREAK THEIR
RECORD LOW...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE 19 FOR TOMORROW.

MORE RECORD LOWS WILL SHOW UP BY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS
WELL. CALLAHAN AND QUARTZ MTN RAWS SHOW MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND THESE AREAS SHOULD NOT GET THE WINDS. MOUNT SHASTA
LOOKS ON TAP TO DIP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT....WHILE ALTURAS SHOULD
AGAIN FALL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS.

LOOKING OUTSIDE TONIGHT A BIT...AFTER THIS COLD UPPER LOW MOVES OUT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE AVIAITON MODEL HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY TUESDAY WITH THE
EPAC TROUGH NEARING THE COAST. THIS EVENINGS RUN ACTUALLY BACKED OFF
A BIT AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A PROBABLE TREND. SO...DRYS STILL THE
WORD.

AN INTERESTING NOTE FOR OCTOBER...THE TOTAL OCTOBER PRECIP IN MEDFORD
FOR 2002 WAS .16 INCHES. LAST OCTOBER IT WAS .19 INCHES. THESE TOTALS
PLACE THE TWO OCTOBERS AS THE 7TH AND 9TH DRIEST ON RECORD. ALL THIS
WHILE CONSIDERING LAST YEAR WAS A LA NINA AND THIS YEAR AN EL NINO.
REMEMBER THE 98-99 EL NINO WHICH WHICH GAVE MT. ASHLAND ITS ALL TIME
RECORD SNOW? HMMM...I GUESS THIS ISNT ONE OF THOSE. WELL...IN
GENERAL WERE DRIER DURING EL NINO YEARS...AND SO FAR THIS ONES
HOLDING TRUE. STAVISH...IN HONOR OF MWW. ADIOS AMIGO.

.MFR...NONE.

ORZ021>031-CAZ080>085-011430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
630 AM PST THU OCT 31 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COLD SPELL CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE A LITTLE SATURDAY
MORNING. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD WEATHER IS LOW FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GERIG