Flood in Oklahoma, May 8 to 11, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
RACE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES. WHILE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED...MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD WORK FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE AGAIN BY THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT IS HANDLED WELL IN THE SECOND
PERIOD.  FIRST PERIOD TWEAKS INCLUDE LOWERING MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE OK...AND TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
SLIGHT CHANCE. ZONES INCLUDED IN THE WIND ADVISORY LOOK GOOD SO LEFT
AS IS.

UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE SENT BETWEEN 1530Z AND 1540Z

FCSTID =23

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0507 PM    COPAN                     OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/07/02   WASHINGTON                     EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                          REPORT

1030 PM    SOUTH COFFEYVILLE         OK   FLOOD
05/07/02   NOWATA                         NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

1015 PM    FAIRLAND                  OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/07/02   OTTAWA                         TREE LIMBS DOWNED REPORTED
                                          BY UTILITY COMPANY.

0553 PM    WELCH                     OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/07/02   CRAIG                          LIMBS DOWN ON POWERLINES
                                          REPORTED BY UTILITY
                                          COMPANY.

0323 PM    FORAKER                   OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/07/02   OSAGE                          COOPERATIVE OBSERVER
                                          REPORT

MANNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED DATE OF REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0354 PM    6 NW BIGHEART             OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/07/02   OSAGE                          PUBLIC REPORT

0309 PM    WEBB CITY                 OK   .88 INCH HAIL
05/07/02   OSAGE                          PUBLIC REPORT

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
125 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
   NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
PRODUCE TORNADOES...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LINE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE WOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BACK SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE BY THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUGGESTS INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.  AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING WILL AID THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT.
AS THE FRONT IS ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHEAST...STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN TEXAS.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC THURSDAY

AREA 1...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...70
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...100
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50

AREA 2...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...50
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...70
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...30

AREA 3...SOUTH OF A STANLEY OKLAHOMA TO ZAFRA OKLAHOMA LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...20
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY.
REFER TO OKCNPWTUL FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA