Flood in Oklahoma, May 8 to 12, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
RACE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES. WHILE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED...MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD WORK FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE AGAIN BY THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT IS HANDLED WELL IN THE SECOND
PERIOD.  FIRST PERIOD TWEAKS INCLUDE LOWERING MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE OK...AND TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
SLIGHT CHANCE. ZONES INCLUDED IN THE WIND ADVISORY LOOK GOOD SO LEFT
AS IS.

UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE SENT BETWEEN 1530Z AND 1540Z

FCSTID =23

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
   NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE SOME SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH A AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH TODAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND PUSH TO THE EAST. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENHANCED BY
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITIES IN PLACE. SOME
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC THURSDAY

AREA 1...NORTH OF A BARTLESVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...70
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...100
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50

AREA 2...EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...30
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...90
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...30

AREA 3...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...20
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...60
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY.
REFER TO OKCNPWTUL FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA