Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, May 12, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
200 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES BEHIND COLD
FRONT.  POPS ARE DOING OK FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

HOWIESON
FCSTID = 44

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM MIAMI TO TULSA TO
BRISTOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 65 MILES AN HOUR.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.  THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.  LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
IF THE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC MONDAY

AREA 1...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...90
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...70
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA