Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 21, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
306 AM EDT FRI JUN 21 2002

FORECAST RUNNING PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS. MODELS STILL HINTING AT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND FLIRTING WITH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
FEATURE THAT COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AMPLE MOISTURE FIELD SAGS
SOUTH WITH THE FRONT AS WELL.  LAST INGREDIENT BEING INSTABILITY
WELL REPRESENTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
INVERTED V SOUNDING WITH GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING AND A HIGH ASPECT
RATIO FOR THE POSITIVE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME 3 DEGREE CAPPING INVERSION. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW
POPS.

TONIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE WARM WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW
POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING SHOULD LINGER INTO THE TONIGHT PERIODS.

SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH OF THE SAME AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM SURFACE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.

MODELS STILL INDICATE SURFACE LOW TRACKING WEST ACROSS FLORIDA WILL
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SEND  MOISTURE NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL AID IN PREVENTING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
FROM SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOL FRONT
PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE AREA BY THURSDAY BUT MAY WASH OUT AS AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT MODIFIES WITH TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO ETA GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY ZONES OUT AND FINAL ZONES WILL FOLLOW SOON.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

LOMBARDY

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-212030-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1045 AM EDT FRI JUN 21 2002

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE HEAVY RAIN.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND NOON. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE WIND DAMAGE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAN HAVE HEAVY
RAIN...THAT CAN CAUSE SOME STREET FLOODING.

PEOPLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY FOR
THREATENING WEATHER.

KIELTYKA

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-212030-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1050 AM EDT FRI JUN 21 2002

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE HEAVY RAIN.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND NOON. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE WIND DAMAGE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAN HAVE HEAVY
RAIN...THAT CAN CAUSE SOME STREET FLOODING.

PEOPLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY FOR
THREATENING WEATHER.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.

KIELTYKA
CORRECTED TO ADD SKYWARN ACTIVATION STATEMENT.