Lightning Strike in North Carolina, August 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
239 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

SFC TROF INLAND TO MV TO THE COAST TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...SHRA
AND TSRA DVLPG TO OUR N AND NW EXPECTED TO MV INTO AT LEAST OUR NRN
CWA. AS THE BNDRY AND WEAK UPR VORT MVS EAST TNGT...ACTIVITY TO OUR
N MAY LATER MV OR DVLP TOWARD THE COAST. WL FORECAST 40 POPS AND
CALL IT SCTTRD COVERAGE TNGT (BULK OF ACTIVITY EVENING HOURS).

BNDRY WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST ON SUN...AND SO DOES CONVERGENCE AS
PGRAD WEAKENS. INLAND...DRIER AIR ADVECTS FRM THE NW BEHIND THE
BNDRY...SO THAT SHUD TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WEVE SEEN
THE PAST 2 DAYS. ATTM IT APPEARS HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED
FOR SUN GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND DWPTS WHICH DECREASE 2-5
DEGREES. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BNDRY NORMALLY WARRANTS A CHANCE
POP...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/CONVERGENCE...WL ONLY INCLUDE A 10-20
POP SUN/SUN NIGHT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEARER THE BNDRY.

BY MON...A 5H CLOSED LOW MVS ACROSS AND JUST S THE OH RVR VLY. BY
18Z MON DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE WITH PWAT ON THE INCRS. THE
BEST CHNC FOR RAIN NOW APPEARS MON EVE/NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE BNDRY
MVS NORTH THRU THE AREA. WE WOULD HAVE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR
PROLONGED RAIN IF THE UPR LOW WAS A LITTLE CLOSER TO US...HOWEVER
LATEST PROGS NOW RETROGRADE THE LOW W AND THE UPR RIDGE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. WL DECREASE POPS WED/THU...AND REMOVE
POPS FOR FRI/SAT AS URP RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD.

MARINE...ALBEIT MARGINAL WILL GO WITH SCA FOR WATERS FROM OCRACOKE
INLET N TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS PLUS VORT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL SEPARATE SOUNDS AND INCLUDE PAMLICO IN SCA ALTHOUGH
MAINLY E PART WILL HAVE SCA WINDS. S OF OCRACOKE WILL GO WITH
SCSEC. WINDS DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS GREATER
THAN 15 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN
TUE WITH S FLOW AFTER WARM FRONT MOVES N.

RIP CURRENT...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS TOMORROW EXPECT LOW THREAT.

.MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N OF OCRACOKE INLET AND PAMLICO
SOUND.

NP/WS

NCZ029-044-079-242300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
557 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PITT...MARTIN AND GREENE COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 557 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WILLIAMSTON TO 28 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE...OR FROM 11
MILES NORTHEAST OF WILLIAMSTON TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF WILSON...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR GREENVILLE AT
615 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

CTC

NCZ046-047-103-250000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLAND DARE...OUTER BANKS DARE
AND TYRRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 653 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM KILL DEVIL HILLS
TO 11 MILES WEST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR NAGS HEAD AT 715 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS
TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE MANNS HARBOR AND MANTEO.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
STORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

CTC