Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in New York, August 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EDT THU AUG 01 2002

WORKZONES OUT. ZONES IN MOMENTS.

.DISC...WELL WE DID IT...THE DRIEST JULY SINCE 1968 AND THE FOURTH
DRIEST ON RECORD. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MANY OTHER AREAS FARED A
LITTLE A BETTER AS THE RESULT OF THUNDERSTORMS. NEVERTHELESS THERE
WERE REALLY NO SYNOPTIC TYPE ALL-DAY RAINS SO THE DROUGHT...ABOUT TO
BE NIPPED IN THE BUD...IS COMING BACK.

EARLIER THERE WAS A MCS TO OUR W AND SOME ISLD THUNDER TO OUR EAST.
BOTH AREAS OF PRETTY MUCH DIMINISHED. THE ACC REMNANTS OF THE MCS
MIGHT MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE AND KEEP SOME CLOUDS FLOATING
OVHD TODAY.

NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL START OFF AUGUST PRETTY MUCH THE WAY JULY
LEFT IT...HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID. HOWEVER...WE DID MAKE A FEW
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BASED ON DIVERGENCE ALOFT (H5 ON
UP) AND HEALTHY SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...WE
DECIDED TO ADD A SMALL POP FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO BE AFFECTED BY ANY STORMS THE
RESULT OF THE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE FRONT...HOWEVER...WDLY SCT SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS AND BOUNDARIES SET OF BY THE EARLY
MCV. RUNNING THE MAGLENTA EQ GIVES A VALUE AROUND 3 WHICH TRANSLATES
TO A MINOR EVENT. INDEED...THE WBZ IS FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 9
AND 10 KFT SO HAIL (POSSIBLY EVEN LARGE) IS REMOTELY POSSIBLY WITH
THE STORMS. THE WIND FIELD AND SHEAR LOOK WEAK SO AM NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT WIND. ANY SVR SHOULD BE EXTRMLY ISLD BE A PULSER
TYPE FEATURING POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

WILL CARRY CHC INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES
INCREASING HUMID.

MORE OF THE SAME IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY...WHICH GIVES US AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN OFFICIAL HEAT WAVE. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND...WHICH MIGHT KEEP UP FROM CRACKING 90
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JUST WENT SHORT OF 90 LOCALLY. MEANWHILE...THE
NEXT COLD FRONT (LOOKING A LITTLE WEAKER WITH EACH RUN) WILL
APPROACH OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS USUAL...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MIGHT FOCUS THE CONVECTION. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR ON DAY 2.
OUR WIND FIELD AND HELICITY WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. WILL KEEP
SIMILAR THINKING FROM YESTERDAY BUT RAISE TEMPS A TAD.

THE REAL COLD FRONT MIGHT NOT CROSS KALB UNTIL WELL OVERNIGHT
FRI...AND MIGHT NOT SWEEP ACROSS THE SERN AREAS UNTIL WELL AFTER
DAWN SAT. WILL KEEP THE CHC GOING ALL NIGHT AND EARLY SAT TO OUR SE.
ONCE AGAIN HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE TEMPS ABOUT 3F.

.EXTENDED...THE DEATH RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN ALIVE AND HEALTHY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
00Z AVN BEGINS TO BUILD IT BACK EASTER LATER IN THE WEEK. THE DOG
DAYS OF SUMMER LOOK TO REMAIN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

HAVE FOLLOWED THE MAV NOS PRETTY CLOSELY THROUGHOUT.

.HYDROLOGICAL STATUS...NONE. FORECASTING A RIVER BASIN QPF OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
TODAY WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAST AND COULD DUMP A LOT OF RAIN IN A VERY
ISOLATED SPOTS...RESULTING LOCALIZED FLOODING. HOWEVER...WE FEEL
THIS CHANCE IS REMOTE AT THIS TIME.

.ALY...NONE.

HWJIV